Trade took prices through and close below first the short and then intermediate term trend lines (support). This move extinguished all but the long – term upside bias for prompt gas. Continue to expect wide trading ranges as the gas market attempts to define support. Prompt gas got way too far over its skis this spring and is making an extraordinarily volatile adjustment…retracing 50% of the rally from the June ’20 low in only sixteen trading days. While that decline/retracement extinguished the near term and intermediate term upside biases the long – term uptrend remains.
During the uptrend that first began following the June ’20 multi – year low a long series of higher highs and higher lows has been discussed here and was clearly observable. Short – term, intermediate – term and long – term trend has been definable with trend lines, by following moving averages and by seasonal and monthly lows. After flirting with violating the short – term uptrend in early May and early June, on 06/21 prompt gas decisively violated the trend line rising from the March – April lows and the 20 – day SMA. That decline and close ended the short – term uptrend. That decline and close ended the short – term uptrend. That same day prompt gas closed under the 50 – day SMA confirmed three days later. That violation was quickly followed by a close below the late April and May lows…the conventional support that comprised the last higher intermediate term low. Closes under the 50 – day and the May low ended the intermediate term uptrend.
