Substantive Declines Modify Short Term Bias

Weekly Continuation

On Wednesday June8th, dropped over a dollar in just one hour.  Not to be out done, on Tuesday of last week, July surpassed that unusual event by declining $1.588 (from $8.609 to $7.041) in an hour.Substantial declines, by the prompt contract in the couple of weeks (all from a similar resistance area) should tell us something about the demand for futures contracts on either side on $9. 

This past week total open interest fell 42,829 contracts (through Thursday) bringing the two – week total decline to 84,767…the lowest number of futures contracts outstanding since Labor Day 2016.  It has been discussed here on several occasions, during the rally of ’22 that the level of open interest has contributed mightily to price volatility…both to the upside and downside.  Given the continued lack of participation in hedging, either long or short, expect continued price volatility. 

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