Not sure how many of you were traders in 2014 but the similarities to the trade in Jan/Feb of 2014 and this year are beginning to show a striking similarity. Fundamental in late Dec ’13 and Jan ’14 were weak and then the market got on the coattails of late winter showing up in Feb ’14. Shorts (I was one early in the process) got pummeled, fortunately I flipped the bias for the last week and made up some of my losses. Then the market got stupid (nat gas has a history) and started to correct which worked out just dandy. In late Jan ’14 – early Feb ’14 prices went from $4.20 – $5.72 at the end of the month. Then proceeded to rocket to the highs of $6.493 in the middle of Feb. Oops — then corrected back to $4.44 as the March contract expired. Have no idea how high this silliness will go — perhaps to the highs of last week– but it will correct and will is a very short period of time. Be careful if your buying into the weather hype– remember last October when Europe was going to run out of gas and prices fell over $1.00 in a day off the highs, then proceed to loose another dollar over the next 8 trade days.
