Following the previous week’s close of $4.132, when trading resumed on Sunday night the first trade was $3.826, creating a substantial gap in both the weekly and daily charts (discussed in the Daily last week). January recovered about $.06 during the day but found selling at the violated 200 – day SMA…the first violation of the 200 – day since April 6th, and then traded down to $3.630 with the highest volume since the reversal from the October 6th high. The prompt worked higher after Monday’s action with both volume and volatility (and open interest) diminishing. The high traded on Friday afternoon but still left January $.207 lower with a weekly continuation gap between $4.042 – $3.965. This action has left the the short term momentum indicators severely over-sold.
Since the October 6th high prompt gas has fallen $2.836 or 43.9%, while the summer ’22 strip has lost only $.117 from its close on October 6th, equaling 3%. It should be noted that the summer strip posted its its last high on 11/27, $4.334 and has fallen from that high to a low 18.8% from that high. Total open interest continues to fall as traders show little interest in either speculation nor hedging at this point. Will look at total open interest this week and if there is some interesting aspect to the declines — will update during the week.