For the ninth consecutive expiration, the contract rallied during the process. I have no clue as to why, but in this case the rally in the expiring Dec contract price exceeded the Jan contract periodically during the”take-off”. December’s rally was the first monthly settlement value lower than the previous month since April settled below March– this action confirms the loss of upside momentum during calendar November and suggests a period of consolidation.
The contracts in the Q2 months and months more distantly deferred broke out to and closed at new highs. A week ago, the technical evidence indicated increasing sponsorship for the deferred gas. I mentioned last week that it was likely that the December would rally into expiration, however more restrained than the November contract. Failure to rally (continue the historical trend) would have been an indication that the character of the uptrend had changed. December’s rally confirms the bias remains in place.