I am well aware that many of you are frustrated with me continually talking about the over bought status of natural gas and the technical indicators that just confirm that status. When does the market moderate — none of us have a clue but I wanted to bring you some additional information supporting some consolidation in the price action. The natural gas prices have settled higher for six consecutive weeks during this run. Of those six weeks, prices started with strength (either Sunday night or Monday) four times and opened the week lower the other two time. Obviously, regardless of prices starting weak early in the week, the market finished higher by Friday.
Another element to the current price run is the range of prices as measured by the ATR (Average True Range) which measures the price range from high to low for the week or the day. In the Weekly chart below you can see the ATR readings for the last 15 weeks, noting it is at levels not seen since Oct ’18 through Jan ’19.