Historical Seasonal Weakness Begins

Weekly Continuation

After last week’s highest weekly close since December ’18, Sept made one more low volume push higher but failed well below the last two weekly highs at 2.187 & 2.205.  The reversal from a just slightly lower high (2.185) traded with the highest volume since the end of calendar June and continued to increase as the prompt fell.  Average daily volume for the week ending 08/13 increased an estimated 95,000 contracts and added up to the highest total in six weeks. This may have been the beginning of the seasonal correction talked about here for weeks.

Further evidence supporting the weakness theory lies with September declining for the second time in three weeks with a closing high sandwiched between.  The last time there were two declines in three weeks (continuation) was during the final stage of the weakness that ended with the March Q1 low. Since then price declines have been limited to a single week which were all followed by a higher closing high or one unchanged. (although there was that one unchanged close for week ending 07/16…the rarity of which was noted at the time). 

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