September Fall Back Into the Range

Weekly Continuation
Monthly Continuation

Prices traded back to 1.714 before the expiring August prompt rallying to nearly early July high (1.893 v 1.924) but then fell to expire at 1.854. From there the September contract immediately opened with a gap only to trade slightly above the August, in July, (1.928 v 1.924) failing and gave back the premium it was afforded, trading back into the common range that has held the market for recent months. It ended the outcry session nearly where the August had begun it (1.799 v 1.796). The reversal may indicate the difficulty that the September contract will face in breaking out.

It was interesting that the contract ended the outcry below the trend line on the Weekly, only to bounce before the close of the week, closed nearly on the trend line. Until the prompt gas closes the week above that trend line (from the Nov ’19 high and the May ’20 high), supported by higher volume and gaining open interest, it is likely that prices will remain in this range.

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