Expiration Within Expectations

Daily Continuous

Just a reminder — this will be the last week that the Daily will arrive in your email unless you subscribe to the website. Effective May 1, you will have to subscribe to the website to receive the Daily. This market seems to be forming a bias change and ecomenergy will be leading the analysis during the transition.

The May contract expired at the high end of my expectations discussed on Monday ($1.61-$1.833) at $1.794. This was after two days of $.22 and $.25 daily ranges — whats that all about. My thoughts were that prices in June prompt would try to close with May’s prices but it is at the high end of the range that has held resistance for an extended period of time. Perhaps prices will collapse down into the support zone from May and April, or as the differed price action has indicated, future strength will control the market. The expiration of May at the high end and the strong differential to June needs to be addressed near term.

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.78-$1.765
Major Resistance: $1.993-$2.025, $2.062,$2.08-$2.102
Minor Resistance: $1.968