Major Support: $2.346, $2.212-$2.207, $2.185,$2.12, $2.029 Minor Support: $2.27 Major Resistance: $2.48-$2.52, $2.716-$2.755, $2.884-$2.908, $2.984 Minor Resistance: $2.642
Mentioned earlier about the perilous nature of shorting the winter in December — so I went back and produced the chart above. The Commitment of Traders Report (CFTC) is released each Friday representing position of the Tuesday of the same week and it shows the Managed Money (speculative) short and long positions at that time. Looking at the Speculative Short Position chart above notice the two blue circles at the lows in Dec ‘15 and the lows in Dec ‘17 and what happened to the short position (volume of contracts purple line – right axis)when some event (likely a weather forecast change) forced the shorts to cover. In Dec ‘15 it was an $.80 gain (nearly 50%) and in 2017 it was a $1.00 gain. I bring this to your attention not suggesting it will occur this year but as I mentioned earlier this week you have to be very nimble shorting an early winter market. Each of those years had supportive fundamental data for the declines (just as this year) but when the forecasts changes — everything changes. Have fun be nimble.
