April gas, likely still bid in sympathy with the rise in crude (which gap-ped higher on the way to the highest trade since 06/15/22 ($119.48), $28.58, 31.4% above last week’s close), went its own way after trading a lower high. Prompt gas finished the week $.055/dt lower, April crude, which goes to settlement on the 19th, closed at $98.71, $7.81 higher. After closing the remainder of a gap left on 02/09 ($3.316 – $3.387) April gas failed at its 40 – weeks SMA well short of the last lower high traded on 02/09 at $3.659.
There is a distinct similarity to the recovery rally following the high volume 02/02 decline and the absence of volume. Between 02/03 and 02/06 prompt March rallied from $3.155 to $3.659 with declining volume (discussed here). On 03/09 March gap-ped lower. Since trading to $2.961 on 03/10 April has rallied to $3.317 (similarly gaining with falling volume). If it is not the same, it rhymes. Unless April can hold a trend line rising from the lows of the last two weeks ($2.775 and $2.867, currently about $3.051 and the trend line from July low & March low) there is an increasing likelihood of a test of the zone between the January and February lows of April gas ($2.604 – $2.775).
