Daily Call

Inconsistent Internet

Daily Continuous

Having issues with the internet while traveling — my apologies — Market down in Sunday night trade — not sure of any meaning. Continue to play to the ranges selling near $9.00 and buying dips especially into the low $8.60’s for now.

Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60

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Limited Weekly Continued Bullish Bias

Weekly Continuation

Traveling today, Sunday, and the internet is sporadic. Prices declined on Friday after the close so would expect additional weakness on Monday. Will give more of an update to the coming week tomorrow for publish on Tuesday.

Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60

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Now This Is Serious Volatility

Daily Continuous

Heard from many of you fundamental folks that the collapse two days ago was do to an explosion at an LNG facility that (I understand) will impact flows of gas in the US — allowing more gas to go into storage. Ok, I am with you so far but $1.50 loss– seems a little over board for 21 Bcf over the next three weeks. Nothing has changed during the morning hours (per information on the fire) — yet price rallied back to $9.00. Regardless of the fundamental impacts (they do not effect my diatribes) — if you need proof that this is a serious bull market run — you got it yesterday when the prices rebounded that quickly with little information. An element of trade that confirms my technical bias — is that prices did not hold below the trend line (discussed yesterday) on a daily closing basis. Rather, similar to the May 10th collapse, prices rallied back above the trend line. HMMMMM May 10th, June 9th — I am sure it is coincidence.

Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60

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Incredible Reversal

Daily Continuous

Huge reversal during the mid-morning trade as the commodity funds got the call to liquidate the profits earned in the last month. The extension downward originally held the trend line off of the March May lows. Broken previously the market rallied and closed above the trend line. Watch for that confirmation today — does the break down last night hold during the day trade. This does not conclude the bull market bias but it is starting to effect the technical indicators.

Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60

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New Q2 High — Now What

Daily Continuous

Suggested yesterday that a new was likely but was concerned that the break above did not hold during the day. That suggests a hesitation from those that are driving this train (bulls) to just push on. Not a lot of resistance between here and $10– so it should be a “convincing” trade. Just continue to buy dips, but leaving before trade ceases on the day. It is likely we will wake up and be down $.40– caution during this kind of volatility.

Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60

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I Stand Corrected–Unlikely That Q2 High Is In

Daily Continuous

Mentioned yesterday that the it was unknown if the Q2 high was established and that upcoming trade would help define. If prices can’t set a higher high than the May high after yesterday’s gap opening and $.70 rally it is going to miss a great chance to break out above. Not many resistance zones above that level until you hit $10 and above. Declines will need to close the gap from yesterday at $8.73.

Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60

Here We Go Again

Daily Continuous

Last weekend we came back prices were down big time — conforming to the historical Holiday weakness trend- now a week later and prices are back up challenging the highs from last Tuesday/Monday. As discussed in the Weekly section this volatility will continue to be prevalent for the coming summer months. Fundamental folks will blame it on the weather or the war — but notice that the prices on the futures in Dutch and London contracts are down– so ignore the “noise”.

The market will find the top on this bull run and not sure where but I don’t believe the May high is the calendar top and the jury is out on whether it is the Q2, seasonal high (similar to the 2008 run).

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Holiday Weakness Plays Out

Weekly Continuous

Historical Holiday weakness trend was right on cue last week. After a bid not far from Friday’s high when trading resumed prompt gas fell from $8.916 to $8.118 where support was generated from the rising 20 – day SMA (not commonly sighted here). July recovered from that test of support and traded all the way back to definable resistance just short of $9 (as discussed in the Daily last week), reversed lower and spent the remainder of the holiday shortened week churning between the two extremes, ending the week about in the middle.

The momentum divergences discussed here in previous weeks continued while market internals continued to deteriorate The momentum divergences discussed in previous weeks continues to exist and provide additional curiosity. For example, this week each day that price rallied to close higher, the volume declined –while it accelerated when price fell. With prices lower from Thursday to Thursday open interest (data lags by a day) increased nearly 19,000 contracts, suggesting larger positioning on the short side. When a market is in a healthy trend volume, open interest and price will move in the same direction (similar to the December and March lows), right now the opposite is prevalent. In summary for May–prompt gas ended May $.901 higher than on the last trading day of April while volume fell significantly. Open interest also declined during May (from 1,138,850 to 1,115,815). Rising prices – falling volume – falling open interest is a combination that is not likely to continue and underscore a problem within the market..

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Great Test of $9.00 Only To Run Out of Gas

Daily Continuous

The rally ran low before the storage release just below $9.00 and the collapsed after the public release. Found some brief support sending prices back up above $8.70 only to decline through the close. This week will provide some direction as discussed in the Weekly section and perhaps a serious test of support around the earlier low at $8.11 will get tested.

Major Support:$8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance:$8.916, $8.996, $9.60

Solid Rebound Off of Trend Line Support

Daily Continuous

Not even a hard test of the support line drawn from the March, April and May low of continuous prices– but prices rallied significantly off of the weak test, creating a near term support for the monthly range. Suspect prices to rally up to the $9.00 area (early May high)– not convinced it will chase the calendar May high, created during expiration.

Major Support:$8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance:$8.916, $8.996, $9.60

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