Daily Call

Conforming With Labor Day Weakness

Daily Continuation

The twenty – years average of the seasonal declines for the weakness from the mid August high to the Labor Day low is 16.35%, but in recent years the decline has significantly moderated. With the high of $10.04, continuous chart, last month and the low from yesterday at $7.751 the historical average has been met and surpassed (nearly 23% decline) . Whether on time, a little early or a little late, apart from the late summer on ’00, since natural gas began trading at the NYMEX in the spring of 1990 a period of price weakness is consistently distinguishable between mid – August and mid – September. We just don’t know if the declines are over or is there more room to go.

Major Support: $7.956-$7.91, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

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Now That Is An Extension

Daily Continuation

Prices continued the extension of the declines, as prompt dipped below $8.00 briefly, challenging the 50 day SMA and attacked the 20 Week SMA that have been well held support zones lately. The key will be how does the market respond on this test. If support holds then the range up to $9.00 remains, a break down below will suggest the lows of early August around $7.50 are in target.

Major Support: $7.956-$7.91, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Seasonal History Wins

Weekly Continuous

Spoke in the last Weekly that last week was going to be a struggle between the trend of well bid expiration’s and the weakness associated with the Labor Day holiday (one of the historically weakest periods for natural gas). While the expiration went off rather benignly, prices collapsed on Friday before the extended weekend.

As mentioned in the last few Wekly’s, the period bracketing Labor Day is one of, if not the most consistently price negative all year. Typically, prompt gas trades to a late August high and then declines to a post – holiday/mid – September low.

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Friday Collapse — A Directional Indication or Short Term Profits

Daily Continuation

The collapse on Friday is concerning for the bulls, but the general action last week does not show that prices will extend significantly the losses from Friday’s trade. Go into the history about this time of year in the Weekly section, and would not be surprised to see some weakness as prices open today. It remains this analysts view, to follow history showing Q4 highs have been higher than Q3 highs in every year since ’00 except ’01, ’08, ’10, ’11 and ‘14. Be careful here to establish position for the upcoming Q4.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.956-$7.91, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support$$8.619 $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.58-$9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

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A Brief Pause

Daily Continuation

I found an internet signal briefly this afternoon–Please read the Weekly section that was updated today. It seems that the market is establishing whether the recent move was warranted and likely waiting for the upcoming storage report to confirm the recent run.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support$9.36-$9.41, $9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9.664, $9.98

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Potential Issue

Daily Continuation with Potential Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern

Spoke over the weekend about a technical formation that has the “potential” for issues with Nat gas. It has to deal with the developing inverted head and should pattern in the Daily chart. Not saying that this will happen but would be remiss in not bringing it to you attention. The chart above has the two shoulders and the inverted head highlighted.

Technical doctrine holds that the mathematical objective of the violation of the “neckline” of a fully formed head and shoulders construction is an extension approximately equal to the distance from the top of the head (in this case the bottom) to the neckline. Using that metric suggests a target of $14 (9.670 – 5.325 = 4.345 + 9.670 = 14.015).

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Market “Seems” Strong

Weekly Continuation

There will likely be two Weekly reports this week as the market performed and interesting technical formation of late. There will not be a Weekly next week as I have my annual fishing trip to Canada late this week and internet service is sketchy at best.

First off lets review last week’s action–While on a trading basis September did fail at lower high ($9.677 v $9.752) on a daily ($9.336 v$9.322) a continuation basis prompt gas set new closing highs. There were new closing highs in the Winter ’22 – ’23 strip ($8.991 v $8.779). To this trader, these are warning signals for the Q4 and Q1 action.

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Run Continues? or Light Selling Commences

Daily Continuous

Will go into the aspects and potential interpretation of the inverted head and shoulder formation that seems to be developing in the Daily chart later this week. For now- the inability of prices to break below the $8.90-$9.00 area for a couple of times suggests that a mini-range may be in play. My expectations have been that a decline would challenge the $8.50 area but sellers have run out well before that area has gotten tested.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9369-$9.419-$9.598, $9.664

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Resistance Even On a Bullish Report

Daily Continuation

Interesting trade day as the market got a bullish report — rallied– then proceeded to retrace. An interpretation of that behavior suggests that the run in prices needs more drive. Perhaps, a slight retracement to the close or lows from last Friday are coming.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9369-$9.419-$9.598, $9.664

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Caution Flag

Daily Continuous

Recommended caution on buying into the Monday rally and yesterday proved why. The bull market is likely to continue into Q4 but there will be better buying opportunities in the next couple of weeks. Doubt there is the opportunity for a lower low than the July low for the Q3 low– that said — you never know for sure. Let the next round of fundamental data (storage release) hit the market and observe the markets reaction– as mentioned in the earlier Daily’s.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9369-$9.419-$9.598, $9.664

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