Daily Call

November Develops A Possible Range

Weekly Continuous

Discussed the large premium last week on the expiration of the October contract and rather than immediately build on that exceptional premium, the new prompt began the week by opening lower, $3.149 vs last week’s close at $3.206, still a premium of $.314 to October settlement. After fading to $3.133(narrowing the weekly continuation gap that extends down to $2.968), November rallied to test well – defined resistance at the top of a trading range that has confined it since mid – August. Although volume was nothing to write home about the prompt overcame resistance presented by its 50 – day SMA, then multiple weekly and daily highs, discussed during the week, and the trend line declining from the continuation March and June highs.

Most of us in the natural gas trading universe thought there were buy orders above that declining resistance. Once through it November spiked all the way to the 40 – week SMA. Wednesday’s close was $3.476, the value of the 200 – day SMA $3.483. There was also a gap between $3.475 and $3.494 and November closed that gap and then some…but could not close above the 200 – day. Instead, a high volume reversal day…with the highest volume since May 20th (an upside reversal day from a higher low that carried through until the June Q2 high).

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The Nov Range Should Hold

Unfortunately, I am unable to download the Daily Chart associated with the Daily- Look at the Weekly chart in the Weekly section and you will notice what I am referring too. The market chose to test the support only to reverse upward on what may be indicative of a bias change. Treat the range with respect as the breakout or breakdown will likely not occur immediately.

Major Support: $3.25, $3.192, $3.167, $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Larger Move

Daily Continuous

Spoke yesterday about a bullish move taking small steps and sure enough, the market rallied quickly in trade yesterday. Waiting for the volume and open interest publishing but the market challenged the 200 day SMA for the first time in over a year. Today is storage day and should provide solid evidence of any bias correction. Play the new range….

Major Support: $3.192, $3.167, $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Without Short Covering – Rallies Are Slow

Daily Continuation

In the head line I wrote about a short covering rally starts off with a bang as the shorts struggle to cover. In longer term run in prices (long term bias change) which are characterized by one step back followed by two steps forward. Important week in the coming ten days to establish the bias.

Major Support: $3.167, $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Slowly Building

Daily Continuous

Prices rebounded from late night early trade day weakness to end on a stronger note. Is this a early sign of price strength developing or just a trade to establish the high end of the Nov range.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Still Negative After All These Months

Weekly Continuous

The expiration process went off as expected staying with in the range that was developed during month. A week ago, the premium awarded to November increased from $.266 to $.302. This week that premium rose to $.371. Nov is always premium over Oct, but a year ago when October went to settlement November was awarded $.160, in ’23$ .135. In both ’23 and ’24 new prompt November rallied–in ’23 to a 10/09 high before returning from where it came from then trading back through the low of its first day as prompt on 10/23. The expiration gap left on 09/28/23 was narrowed but not closed and that would have to wait for calendar November.

There is no technical explanation for this year’s exceptional premium other than November’s continuing ability to hold/close above the lower boundary of a trading range that limited declines from around Memorial Day until then prompt August broke down before going off the board at $3.081…and then limited rallies including at the calendar August and to date September highs. Sometimes extraordinary premium for the prompt – in – waiting is delivering a message…sometimes it isn’t.

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Expiration Gap

Daily Continuation

Discuss the expiration gap and some of the history regarding the premium for the Nov contract in the Weekly Section. Would not expect the gap to be closed immediately (perhaps if at all), but the market does not seem to setting up for a rally into the Q4 as it does historically. Would expect the Nov prompt to establish a range just as the previous five contracts have done trading as prompt.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Expiration

Daily Continuation

Do you like craps or roulette? That is how I am assessing the expiration of the Oct contract. Does it run up or does it likely to decline. See you next week.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Nothing Has Changed from Yesterday

Daily Continuous

Can’t say yesterday brought any clarity to the mud puddle we a in. My thoughts are this month is going to trade similar to the last couple with some minor short covering exposing additional selling at higher prices. Tomorrow is option expiration which used to provide some volatility — but I am skeptical of this month.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Key Support Zone

Daily Continuous

Prices headed south to the key areas discussed in the Weekly section that held and found some support. Will be very curious about the upcoming storage release and the market’s response on Thursday.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,