Category: Daily Call

Nothing Has Changed from Yesterday

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Can’t say yesterday brought any clarity to the mud puddle we a in. My thoughts are this month is going to trade similar to the last couple with some minor short covering exposing additional selling at higher prices. Tomorrow is option expiration which used to provide some volatility — but I am skeptical of this month.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Key Support Zone

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Prices headed south to the key areas discussed in the Weekly section that held and found some support. Will be very curious about the upcoming storage release and the market’s response on Thursday.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Where’s the Momentum

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While the extension of the declines was expected, but the move ran out of steam from the volume perspective. This causes a pause in the trader’s minds as the extension downward has areas of support to cover the shorts that are sending prices down seems to be limiting the risk perspective of the short sellers.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Look For A Test Early In the Week

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Would expect a further decline in prices after last week’s close– the main question remains will declines challenge the $2.80-$2.75 zone (weekly lows from August and September). If not where does the Q4 run commence — read the Weekly for further ideas.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Back In the Saddle (Range)

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Price could not break above resistance on the storage data– means the market is unlikely to move in an direction in the near term. Continue to work the range trade.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Bouncing Between

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Price action bounced within the range that has developed – watch to see how the market responds to the storage action coming.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Bizarre Trade Become Strength

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Mentioned that action in the after market trade yesterday, but it turned out a useless indicator for future prices as the market continued to gain. Now approaching the earlier month highs for the price range– but should be continued as resistance for near term trade.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Weird Action

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Just when the after market open yesterday afternoon at 5:00 pm CDT my tick chart showed a crash to $2.86 on just under 2500 contracts. Got no clue what caused that except perhaps some one with length decided it was time to close its books or someone left a bad trade in their system. Prices then spent the next 10 minutes rebounding back above $3.00. Yesterday’s action becomes somewhat irrelevant to this analyst and won’t waist any more of your time speculating on it. Per yesterday’s Daily continue to play range forming for the October contract.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Another Range Bound Monthly Trade

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For the last five months, contracts have developed a “range” shortly after becoming prompt and Oct is doing the same. This trade behavior has limited any chance for the market to breakout or break down, which is why the break above the 50 Day SMA was short lived and died quickly (discussed in the Weekly section). The Q4 rally could provide the environment to break above the current range. If it doesn’t will the Nov provide the opportunity? Not sure as it closed last week just above the high side of the current range at $3.20. Play the Oct range.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.897-$2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Storage Report Breaks Down Prices

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The release of the storage data was more of an injection than expected but doesn’t have any sort of dramatic impact on prices through the winter (watch the prompt relationship to Jan’26) in the near term. That is where you will see any concerns about gas this winter to October.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,