Category: Daily Call

So far this week prices have stayed within the range of last week neither breaking below the lows nor above the highs of the previous week. That can be defined as a consolidation trade range waiting for the next piece of information to perhaps break down or out.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

The declines challenge the lows of last week only to find buyers (as expected) that took prices back up regardless of the fundamentals for natural gas and the weakness in the oil market yesterday. There is definitely support for prices between $4.40-$4.50, which is clearly supportive to prices near term, but my issue is with the potential fall out from a breakdown below $4.36. That could provide enough momentum to take prices well into the $4.20’s. Perhaps it doesn’t happen but with gas you never know.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

Falling apart in the early light trade on Sunday and Monday, prices found a bid when the traders arrived and took prices higher. Then in the late trade prices broke down — this seems like a confused market that does not fully quantify the fundamental data point. From a trade perspective buy the near term dips and sell the rallies to the resistance areas.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

A little stunned looking at the Sunday market and it is down over a nickel. It seem lately, that the market is rocking north before correcting when the traders return to the office on Monday. As discussed in the Weekly section, still thinking that the market needs a more serious test of intermediate support provided by the last 4 week’s lows. Also bring up some historical perspective about trade during calendar March so be advised, I did not write it to solve any boredom during the basketball league championships.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

Additional declines to test the intermediate support between $4.40-$4.36 never occurred which in itself is interesting. Guess folks are going to hold on to the winter trade until the bitter (pun) end. It is either that or some medium term events occurring that I may go into this weekend or next week in the Weekly section. Regardless, expect some additional weakness in the coming 10 days before the expiration process (12 consecutive months of being well-bid) takes over later in the month.

Major Support:$4.38-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

If you trade commodities for very long — you learn that declines and break-downs often occur in massive declines as bullish bets escape with what profits they can. So far this week, the declines have taken on the behavior identity of a positive run with consistent (value losses) declines and not the large volatile collapse that often occurs. If this is the behavior that this retracement wants to own then so be it, and play for the chunks of declines rather than the “collapse”.

Major Support:$4.38-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

Was beginning to wonder if the market was going to resort to fundamental input or just the attachment to the crude market and the war. Yesterday, the market received reduction of demand forecasts from the various weather services which bought about some selling. Go to see that the market does still follow supply and demand even-though I do not trade on the fundamental data points. It is more likely that the technical data points become more relevant if the market is behaving under “normal” decision making. After failing at resistance (granted a higher high to the recent range), expect prices to come under some additional pressure this week as players sift through the data points.

Major Support:$4.38-$4.26, $4.187$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88,$5.08

The image above does not capture the Sunday night move (whether up or down it is consistently large) but last nights is not mirroring the previous $.20-$.30 gains and only stands at a nickel. Whatever– gains are gains so now the market will have to evaluate weather forecasts in the spring (warming base levels), the impacts of the war and the ending inventories later in the month. Discuss the bull market (long term — Latin included) bias that the market remains in and some expectations in the Weekly section. Hope you read — lets see how this strength at the end of the week, plays into this week.

Major Support:$4.38-$4.26, $4.187$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.88-$4.82
Major Resistance:$5.088, $5.572

The price action tested the highs from last month again but could not hold the gains. Early last night, prices tested the highs yet again– not sure what is holding the magical number but the results have been consistent whether crude and or Ukrainian rallies or declines (crude declined yesterday). Until the market breaks out (or down below the $4.36-$4.40 area), the trade continues to work the range (selling rallies).

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $4.735, $4.825 $4.879, $5.088