Category: Daily Call

Resistance Tested

Daily Continuous

The 50 day SMA was broken briefly yesterday and likely found a few shorts that wanted to cover, but the inability to extend further higher, sent prices to retreat. That’s is the first try to break above now will prices try it again or are we destined to trade back and test the support zones at $3.00 and down a nickel.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Working on the 50 Day SMA

Daily Continuous

Prices finished the week holding some of the strength and opened on Sunday night with strength, now the action seems to be testing the 50 day SMA which may bring in some additional short covering should it break above.

Major Support: $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Storage Release Has Little Impact

Daily Continuous

The storage release provided little impact on prices– which in on its own provides some support for the declines being limited.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Recent Gains Hold

Daily Continuous

The gains in prices from the expiration and just after, held yesterday which may be an indication of a small change in short term bias. Recent months have held a rally only to be crushed under selling pressure. Now the market is facing a storage release which may give further indication of the bias preference.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Prices Soften as Expected

Daily Continuous

Prices declined but recovered from some of the declines by day’s end. This leaves the contract starting to test some of the recent prompt contracts have established. While not conclusive, the rebound has brought some support that may allow for further gains.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Will Strength Continue

Daily Continuous

Went into the technical details of the rally last week in the Weekly section. Early trade on Monday and Monday night suggests the market is not comfortable with last week’s trade and expiration, as prices are declining off of the close on Friday. Due to the close a brief correction is clearly called for– the key issue is how far the correction will take prices down. Should the declines be rejected then the resistance around $3.16 will become critical.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Storage Release Supports Gains

Daily Continuous

It was clear that the storage release supported the recent gains and gave the momentum to challenge the $3.00 level. We shall see how far the momentum will carry the action but I would caution against loading up on this rally- rather wait and see how the holiday set up plays.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Expiration Eliminates Oct Premium to Sep

Daily Continuous

Discussed yesterday that the expiration may have unexpected support due to the amount of selling that occurred in the last couple of week. That support brought the weak Sep contract up to the Oct contract level that takes over as prompt tomorrow– just in time for a storage release. A brief pause to initiating new positions may be warranted.

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Expiration

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Not a lot has changed going into the expiration. The chart has rolled over to the October contract. The only observation I have is that the selling runs out during the trade day — it almost seems like all the selling for the last couple of seeks (creating the over sold condition) has created the need for some brief short covering support at the end.

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Options First

Daily Continuous

Expiration of the September contract is upon us with options going out today. Yesterday tried to extend the lows only to find some support, likely from some folks covering earlier placed shorts. Would leave the market alone for now unless you are looking for some lows in the winter months as the trade is starting to catch the recent trend.

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,