Category: Daily Call

If you trade commodities for very long — you learn that declines and break-downs often occur in massive declines as bullish bets escape with what profits they can. So far this week, the declines have taken on the behavior identity of a positive run with consistent (value losses) declines and not the large volatile collapse that often occurs. If this is the behavior that this retracement wants to own then so be it, and play for the chunks of declines rather than the “collapse”.

Major Support:$4.38-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

Was beginning to wonder if the market was going to resort to fundamental input or just the attachment to the crude market and the war. Yesterday, the market received reduction of demand forecasts from the various weather services which bought about some selling. Go to see that the market does still follow supply and demand even-though I do not trade on the fundamental data points. It is more likely that the technical data points become more relevant if the market is behaving under “normal” decision making. After failing at resistance (granted a higher high to the recent range), expect prices to come under some additional pressure this week as players sift through the data points.

Major Support:$4.38-$4.26, $4.187$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88,$5.08

The image above does not capture the Sunday night move (whether up or down it is consistently large) but last nights is not mirroring the previous $.20-$.30 gains and only stands at a nickel. Whatever– gains are gains so now the market will have to evaluate weather forecasts in the spring (warming base levels), the impacts of the war and the ending inventories later in the month. Discuss the bull market (long term — Latin included) bias that the market remains in and some expectations in the Weekly section. Hope you read — lets see how this strength at the end of the week, plays into this week.

Major Support:$4.38-$4.26, $4.187$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.88-$4.82
Major Resistance:$5.088, $5.572

The price action tested the highs from last month again but could not hold the gains. Early last night, prices tested the highs yet again– not sure what is holding the magical number but the results have been consistent whether crude and or Ukrainian rallies or declines (crude declined yesterday). Until the market breaks out (or down below the $4.36-$4.40 area), the trade continues to work the range (selling rallies).

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $4.735, $4.825 $4.879, $5.088

Starting to become a trend is prices like moving in either direction after the market closes on or Sunday night into Monday morning. Now yesterday sees the market jumping in the light trade during the early morning and then holding those gains through the general session. Not sure what to make of it all — guess the folks trading in London and Europe are making there expectation known. Yesterday’s gains look like the market is creating a new mini-range between $4.72 and the expansion early yesterday at $4.34. Use those as the guard rails for action today.

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance:$4.664, $4.735, $4.825 $4.879, $5.088

As suspected, after the bogus Sunday night open and rally, prices declined to test the support zone that held declines since Feb 15th, trading down to $4.366. The declines occurred on declining volume, which is likely to continue until serious support zones are broken and the longs are forced to cover. The market is starting to head into a historically positive time of the year (2nd quarter high) which may limit the declines in total but keep the eyes on the summer differed contracts as they may hold the keys to support.

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance:$4.664, $4.735, $4.825 $4.879, $5.088

The expiration went as history would expect, as the market rallied to $4.94 to continue the trend of the last year. The big question is where do we go from here– the declines during the day suggests that there may be additional weakness to the trade today– but with the general strength in commodities (likely due to the war issues) it would be hard to predict. Sitting on the sidelines is never a loosing situation.

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.48
Major Resistance:$4.664, $4.735, $4.825 $4.879, $5.088

My apologies, but I see no reason to risk any of my gains on this expiration and will prefer to watch the differed summer strip and summer contracts on this expiration day.

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.48
Major Resistance:$4.664, $4.735, $4.825 $4.879, $5.088

Well, off of a rally on the Holiday light trade, prices retreated yesterday to (basically) where it closed last week. Should trend of rallying into expiration been met– not really– but this is an interesting twist that should be respected. I will be stunned to see the short covering rally similar to the Feb expiration in the March rally but some trader’s expectations surprise me (why has a rallied happened in the last 12 expiration’s except for short covering). Today is options expiration — and lets see what it provides for future movements.

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.48
Major Resistance:$4.664, $4.735, $4.825 $4.879, $5.088