Category: Daily Call

Solid rebound for prices yesterday and have no fundamental reason for it so I will rely on technical data points showing prices a little oversold on the Daily RSI chart and not confirming the break down with extensions lower after testing support.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

After a “consolidation” period for trade for three days last week, perhaps prices are ready to start a rebound higher or an extension lower in the coming week. Needless to say that the historical momentum for lower prices remains (but dwindling) and the market is heading into a bullish period associated with the fourth quarter.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.205-$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Prices tried to extend the declines after the report but each attempt into high $7.80’s found buyers. Perhaps the market is starting the consolidation process after loosing over $2.25 since the highs last month. Time will tell as the market remains in the historically bearish period of the year.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.22, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

The twenty – years average of the seasonal declines for the weakness from the mid August high to the Labor Day low is 16.35%, but in recent years the decline has significantly moderated. With the high of $10.04, continuous chart, last month and the low from yesterday at $7.751 the historical average has been met and surpassed (nearly 23% decline) . Whether on time, a little early or a little late, apart from the late summer on ’00, since natural gas began trading at the NYMEX in the spring of 1990 a period of price weakness is consistently distinguishable between mid – August and mid – September. We just don’t know if the declines are over or is there more room to go.

Major Support: $7.956-$7.91, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

The collapse on Friday is concerning for the bulls, but the general action last week does not show that prices will extend significantly the losses from Friday’s trade. Go into the history about this time of year in the Weekly section, and would not be surprised to see some weakness as prices open today. It remains this analysts view, to follow history showing Q4 highs have been higher than Q3 highs in every year since ’00 except ’01, ’08, ’10, ’11 and ‘14. Be careful here to establish position for the upcoming Q4.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.956-$7.91, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support$$8.619 $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.58-$9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

I found an internet signal briefly this afternoon–Please read the Weekly section that was updated today. It seems that the market is establishing whether the recent move was warranted and likely waiting for the upcoming storage report to confirm the recent run.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support$9.36-$9.41, $9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9.664, $9.98

Will go into the aspects and potential interpretation of the inverted head and shoulder formation that seems to be developing in the Daily chart later this week. For now- the inability of prices to break below the $8.90-$9.00 area for a couple of times suggests that a mini-range may be in play. My expectations have been that a decline would challenge the $8.50 area but sellers have run out well before that area has gotten tested.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9369-$9.419-$9.598, $9.664

Interesting trade day as the market got a bullish report — rallied– then proceeded to retrace. An interpretation of that behavior suggests that the run in prices needs more drive. Perhaps, a slight retracement to the close or lows from last Friday are coming.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9369-$9.419-$9.598, $9.664

Recommended caution on buying into the Monday rally and yesterday proved why. The bull market is likely to continue into Q4 but there will be better buying opportunities in the next couple of weeks. Doubt there is the opportunity for a lower low than the July low for the Q3 low– that said — you never know for sure. Let the next round of fundamental data (storage release) hit the market and observe the markets reaction– as mentioned in the earlier Daily’s.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9369-$9.419-$9.598, $9.664