Category: Daily Call

Prices opened with a large gap in the daily charts on Sunday — only to spend the next four hours closing the gap. There is a struggle this week between the historical trend of expiration’s being well bid versus the momentum from last week’s reversal (see Weekly section). This will provide some insight as to June’s tenure for the near term but the longer term bias has not changed as the market remains a bullish bias.

Major Support:, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

Discussed yesterday about the potential for consolidation and we got a taste of it when the storage report came out and prices fell to just above $6.70 only to spend the remainder of the day working back higher. We are reaching the May expiration and while last month showed significant gains from the 24th until the 28th (falling at the end), the trend continues to show well-bid expiration’s. Would expect that trend to continue until it doesn’t. The action from yesterday confirms my belief that the market is still well supported even with the $1.00+ decline from earlier highs.

Major Support:$6.538, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63
Minor Support: $6.757, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

The initial phase of re-entry from the blast off (blow off) top started yesterday — but be cautious. The movement down below $7.00 was informative but not the end-all. The bulls may want to try consolidation for movements, but not sure if that starts until prices test the $6.50 area. Yesterday’s low went just down to the lows from Thursday (before the Holiday shortened weekend) only to find support (shocking). Still recommend patience here.

Major Support:$6.538, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.757, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

What else can be said after the update in Weekly and Daily yesterday and watch prices up another $.60 yesterday morning– extending the existing over bought conditions. So much fun — but the issues will be coming later when the floor falls out from underneath the buying. Continue to be very careful as the correction will be swift and likely violent. Look for previous Resistance to provide minimal support.

Major Support:$6.538, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.757, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

The failure of May gas to correct before going off the board would be a departure from the pattern of each expiring contract for more than a year…as would a failure to rally into expiration. Expect both to happen over the next eight trading days. Given the strength into Thursday’s pre – holiday close further extension of the rally should not be a surprise, but traders should be alert for a reversal as discussed in the Weekly area. My guess is that a good chunk of last week’s gains will be shed.

Major Support:$6.538, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.757, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

What can we say, the bullish move continues regardless of the over-bought conditions and now is challenging 3 standard deviations over the 20 week SMA. Notice on the chart below, that prices are approaching that extreme level. Can it get there — absolutely but also notice that it does not stay that exposed for very long.

A few of you contacted me in the last week regarding the run and how far it can go– I have tried to explain that it will go as far as the buyers continue to support it — but as I mentioned the last couple of Daily’s, the market will signal the conclusion. Some others have questioned is this the Q2 high– at this point I don’t see this as a culmination of the early summer run – but rather a rally within the med-term bias.

Can not claim that this leg of the run is completed — but yesterday gave a slight idea that the bulls may be running low on fuel. Off to a big gain in the morning, trying to test $7.00, only to spend the last 3 hours giving it all back and developed a bearish daily reversal off of a new high. Daily reversals are prevalent in gas so would not hang your hat on it but the volume on yesterday’s reversal was nearly 20% higher. As mentioned yesterday, the trade though the week’s end is key for the next couple of week’s price action.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.538, $6.757, $7.346

Big extension yesterday to set a new high, while volume was lighter than Friday (lightest of last week). This may be a market reaching a short term high (for whatever reason) but won’t know until the week is finished from a technical standpoint. There are also very few technical areas at resistance levels as the market blew through them in Feb expiration process.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.538, $6.757, $7.346

Last week continued the strength but started to hit some selling. Go into near term expectations for price in the Weekly section, for today I would expect a slight retracement of the buying back up to Friday’s mid zone around $6.40’s. The market should struggle a little in this top area and correct for a more traditional bull rally. The market has not provided any evidence that there will be a “blow off” type of topping process so expect a more stair step run in the coming weeks.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.366, $6.466-$6.53, $7.346

Spoke of consolidation around the $6.00 area similar to last months behavior around the $5.00 area last month– Well I was wrong as prices exploded on the lightest volume day of the week. That being said, this week’s total volume looks to be the highest in the last month. Higher volume on flat or gaining open interest is supportive to the bullish case. However, this market is starting to reflect an over – cooked bull run in the secondary and primary technical indicators– be very cautious in adding to positions here as prices retreated from testing the early October high. Some folks might advise taking some profits at these highs.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.366, $6.466, $7.346