Category: Daily Call

What took prices higher got eliminated yesterday as prices declined to close the gap from Monday, only to find some support at the end. Still remaining in the higher third of the range prices have traded this month– there is little to trade until the market decides to trade on winter or the LNG facility staying offline indefinitely.

Major Support: $6.39, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.42, $7.532, $7.60-7.75, 8.021,

Two days in a row that a rally off of changing patterns in the forecast have kept prices elevated. Lots of folks (fundamental) are convinced that the winter will not provide enough to offset the dry gas production gains made during the last few months– so I have been told– I have no clue because I choose not to get whip-sawed by following the swings on forecasts. From the technical perspective– the market tested and set a lower low in October then promptly reversed. Late last month (into December) prices again collapsed but could not even test the lower low from October, before finding support. Now we have a market rebounding, seemingly wanting to test the highs from last month between $7.42-$7.60. This will get interesting if the forecasts continue to support the run.

Major Support: $6.39, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.42, $7.532, $7.60-7.75, 8.021,

The large gap opening was exciting but the trade during the day retraced a large chunk of the gap, but not closing the gap. Would expect the gap to close during the day sometime this week, unless the forecast remain cold longer in the month. Mentioned the $7.00 area yesterday and that will continue to be the key are of resistance, all based upon the weather forecasts.

Major Support: $6.39, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

Last week prices gapped lower on Sunday night only to extend declines later on Monday and Tuesday. This week the market has decided to gap higher on Sunday night. Last week the market spent the week retracing the declines– not sure it will happen this week (retracing and closing the gap created on Sunday) but with natural gas nothing is impossible. Welcome to the world of trading a commodity based on weather forecasts. Due to that relationship — it would be wise to expect severe volatility in the coming weeks. Evaluate the range that trades today for location to placing positions and expect the $7.00 area to bring some sellers– whether enough to blunt the run will have to be determined.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance:$6.45-$6.48, $6.687, $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

Prices have jumped in the late trade and are starting to challenge the gap from Monday and last week. Not sure what that is all about as the trade is on light volume and in front of the storage report (all my fundamental friends have told is bearish). As spoken previously, sell the rallies but keep stops very tight as we are still in winter and no one knows what the forecasts will bring.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance: $6.45-$6.48, $6.687, $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

After dropping over $2.00 in six trade days, price declines slowed yesterday. This may lead to a brief (but potentially violent) rally. Would wait for that rally to initiate new short positions– but remember prices are subject to weather forecast changes– so keep some stops tight to the new shorts.

Not much to say but that is why you use stop loss orders last week. We came in today and prices were below $6 and headed lower. Trading down into the lows from late October, the market will develop the low end of potential new range. We now know that the high end of any range is the huge gap from the weekend which will get challenged, though likely later in the winter or next year.

Major Support: $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.45-$6.48, $6.687, $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

Prices have now returned within the range from last month, as prices broke below $6.45-$6.40 on Friday. This now places prices in the range that was discussed here last month which went down to $5.70 and slight extensions lower. Would patiently wait for the declines define the lower end of the range before starting the range trade strategy. The market now has redefined its bias to sell the rally after the melt down.

Major Support: $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.45-$6.48, $6.687, $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

Price action sent prices below the trend line but the market close above it at the end. That trend line may not hold the declines associated with annual post Thanksgiving weakness. It does not look like a major melt down with this move but with Natural Gas you never know. Would expect some support during the coming week, but keep the stops tight if you are adding length. Bears play your game– but suggest some profit taking.

Major Support: $6.716, $6.547-$6.50, $6.456, $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,