Category: Daily Call

Hope none of you folks got sucked into that concept two days ago that the “rail strike” would impact gas. The strike was never going to happen as all the powers in Washington were going to see to that event did not happening. The market is basically back to where it was before the rail issue surfaced. Prices are dancing around the 50 day SMA, so that will provide no insight on the future movement– I could see declines to $8.00 and can also suggest prices to $8.50 so no unique technical insight here except the seasonal which historically shows a price rally into the Q4.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $8.325, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$ $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Not exactly sure what hit the market (news) in last hour+ of trade but it got some folks excited. Prices rumble through $9.00 with out much issue and now it seems that prices look to want to test the highs from mid August before the Labor Day decline, I just don’t see the $10.00 level in the immediate future. This is still (for the last year+) a bull market trend so positions should reflect that trend.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $8.325, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$ $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Yesterday’s $.30 range in prices was one of the lowest of late and was well below the 14 day Average True Range (ATR) which is currently $.52 in the daily charts. Perhaps, the market is pausing in both directions to evaluate the next round of fundamental information. Until the market decides, work the market with some options as the volatility declines, cheapens the cost of the options.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Solid rebound for prices yesterday and have no fundamental reason for it so I will rely on technical data points showing prices a little oversold on the Daily RSI chart and not confirming the break down with extensions lower after testing support.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

After a “consolidation” period for trade for three days last week, perhaps prices are ready to start a rebound higher or an extension lower in the coming week. Needless to say that the historical momentum for lower prices remains (but dwindling) and the market is heading into a bullish period associated with the fourth quarter.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.205-$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Prices tried to extend the declines after the report but each attempt into high $7.80’s found buyers. Perhaps the market is starting the consolidation process after loosing over $2.25 since the highs last month. Time will tell as the market remains in the historically bearish period of the year.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.22, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

The twenty – years average of the seasonal declines for the weakness from the mid August high to the Labor Day low is 16.35%, but in recent years the decline has significantly moderated. With the high of $10.04, continuous chart, last month and the low from yesterday at $7.751 the historical average has been met and surpassed (nearly 23% decline) . Whether on time, a little early or a little late, apart from the late summer on ’00, since natural gas began trading at the NYMEX in the spring of 1990 a period of price weakness is consistently distinguishable between mid – August and mid – September. We just don’t know if the declines are over or is there more room to go.

Major Support: $7.956-$7.91, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

The collapse on Friday is concerning for the bulls, but the general action last week does not show that prices will extend significantly the losses from Friday’s trade. Go into the history about this time of year in the Weekly section, and would not be surprised to see some weakness as prices open today. It remains this analysts view, to follow history showing Q4 highs have been higher than Q3 highs in every year since ’00 except ’01, ’08, ’10, ’11 and ‘14. Be careful here to establish position for the upcoming Q4.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.956-$7.91, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support$$8.619 $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.58-$9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

I found an internet signal briefly this afternoon–Please read the Weekly section that was updated today. It seems that the market is establishing whether the recent move was warranted and likely waiting for the upcoming storage report to confirm the recent run.

Major Support:$8.47-$8.40, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support$9.36-$9.41, $9.057, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $9.664, $9.98