Category: Daily Call

Guess everyone is getting geared up for the upcoming bearish storage report as price expanded the range downward towards the end of the day. Still over sold (momentum indicators), continues to challenge 2 standard deviations below the 20 week SMA, and volume maintains average levels– looks like a bear market from the tech standpoint–but I have a lot of experience selling (or buying) at 2 standard deviations beyond the 20 wk — so I will stick with sell the rallies and defer to add to positions.

Major Support: $3.14-$3.00
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

Prices finish last week just off the lows which would suggest weakness in the coming week– that did not occur yesterday as prices opened up and held support during the light trade day. Discuss the market in the Weekly sections– so won’t repeat here — give a quick look. Other than those comments, look for the recent range to continue in the coming week.

Major Support: $3.638-$3.536
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

Can’t add a lot of flavor about the consolidation range trade that has been around all week. Market started strong in the face of a bearish (expected) inventory number only to have the gains melt away towards the end. May not be able to generate returns in this type[e of market — so sell some premium.

Major Support: $3.638-$3.536
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

Hate to be boring but nothing has changed from my input yesterday.

Finding a little support prices managed to rebound and soften some of the momentum indicators and other technical indicators — but yesterday’s action sent the market back to where it started the week. As consolidation processes take place the market needs to test both ends of the range in order to develop the upcoming break down or break out. This may take so time — it did last year for four weeks in Dec ’21 and Jan ’22 before the gradual building of support into Q2.

Major Support: $3.638-$3.536
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

The dramatic declines of the last few days, have left prices entering the extreme zone of over sold. Not saying it can’t decline more — just warning that additional declines are likely to to be short in extensions (see Weekly section). Would allow for the rebound that will be coming, at some point, before entering new short positions.

Major Support: $3.638
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

As a trader, the cliff that the market has fallen off of is impressive (see chart) but also not sustainable over the near term as the market clearly is approaching extreme over sold levels. Having profited nicely on these declines, greed usually catches me under-prepared and over-confident. RSI indicators on both the weekly and daily charts are entering extreme zones and the weekly chart is now trading over 2 standard deviations below the 20 week moving average– all warning signs that it may be time to take profits as I doubt they will be giving gas away free in the current year.

Major Support: $3.638
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

As mentioned in the Tuesday Daily, prices seemed destined to test some of the lows from December ’21 and that is what they did, but instead of collapsing further, they found a bid. Yesterday, they chose to rally back to $4.22 (still well short of where they were last Friday). All I can and will continue to say is the important historical tendencies of early January trade to prices for the mid-term (see numerous posts from last week and the Weekly section currently). Is the low being established? no clue– but will respect the indications of trade behavior.

Major Support: $4.149, $3.638
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056