Category: Daily Call

Prices settled down last week with lowest Average True Range since earlier in the summer. A bearish storage release didn’t bring the bears out and demand destruction from Ian didn’t extend the losses– not being a fundamental based trader– I have not way to explain. Technical data points look to the market testing support on the expiration of Oct below $6.50 only to see prices rebound– that spells a test of support and support held. Are prices destined to test resistance now? There may yet be another test of support with Nov as prompt — have to wait and see.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Going into its prompt role- Nov had very early (overnight) strength only to loose it all and then some after the rest of the trade folks came in. Was a little startled the the fundamental folks were expecting a big injection (likely why the market was weak going into the release) they got what they were looking for – but could not extend the declines after the release. What is that all about– market running out of sellers??? Full disclosure, the declines were starting to challenge the 200 day SMA and the 40 week SMA at the lows — so perhaps prudence took over.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

That was interesting — prices showed strength on Monday going into the expiration — only to give it up on Tuesday and showed slight strength yesterday. Can’t call it a well-bid expiration, as prices closed last Friday at $6.828 and expired at $6.868. That is all irrelevant now as Nov takes over as prompt and is facing a large speculative short position, demand destruction from Ian, and potential sabotage on the pipelines from Russia to Germany. Be interesting to watch how this all works out. Forgot to mention another storage report which is going to be bearish (according to my fundamental clients).

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

This could b a unique expiration as compared to the last twenty+ monthly expiration. So far the current price is just about where it was when price started the week.– What no rally– not sure yet but a great trade position month after month may be coming to break. Does not mean that the trade behavior is not going to happen next month — just means that it may be subtle this month. We will see.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Prices extended lower yesterday only to find support and rally back slightly, closing the day near the highs of the day. This may be the beginning of the recent trend of expiration’s being well bid. Key for today is the options expiration so expect excitement at $7.00 and $6.75. Directional focus will be shown in the Dec, Jan, and Feb contracts as the market defines its upcoming directional bias.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

There was significant technical damage last week and go into the results in the Weekly section. The damage does not end the bull market bias dating back to 2020 but it will make rallies beyond the now well defined resistance very difficult. We are headed into expiration and it is well documented that the market has a tendency to be well-bid.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Prices quieted down yesterday and only traded in a $.34 range from high to low. Mentioned yesterday that the impact of fundamental information may be diminished during this shoulder season. Does not mean there may not be volatility but yesterday provided a brief hiatus to this summer’s radical levels and there may be additional quiet days coming.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.32, $8.45, $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Prices opened Sunday night with $.20 weakness and held that until the full market opened and support started immediately. The rebound took prices to near term resistance and now the market will have to prove the support accurate and carry the gains further. Fundamental issues will have little impact (barring tropical) as the winter forecasts are in place so the impacts are built into the price action.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.32, $8.45, $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

The price action on Thursday and Friday was just brutal (to the downside) as folks figured out that rail strike was not going to happen and then the bears wanted to punish the rally on Friday. Sure looks like prices are headed to $7.00 but not just yet (perhaps after winter becomes defined). If you want to be long the winter into the Q4 — this gives a great chance to establish positions.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.32, $8.45, $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98