Category: Daily Call

Two Days Left — Range Rockin

Daily Continuation

As discussed in the Weekly area — would expect the premium afforded to the October contract to dissolve after the September contract expires. Perhaps, the premium dissipates during the expiration– we will see. From a trade perspective watch the premium vs the September movement.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Startling Response to Bullish Report

Daily Continuous

When prices don’t rally on bullish news (storage report) then you have a segment of folks lining up to keep the price low– question is — how long can they keep it suppressed before another short covering rally like two weeks ago. It is a bearish seasonal period though but running out of prompt.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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If Not Now– When?

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Prices continued the declines and are now clearly wanting to test the calendar July and late Jun lows– Then what happens but the test needs to occur.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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The Ranges Keep Getting Quieter

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Prices stayed quiet after the initial declines– patience is the best trading advise I can provide — play the outer ranges and if bored sell premium.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Where Do We Go — Nowhere

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Discussed the possibility of price action dying during the summer and staying in a range. My worst fears seem to be occurring.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Price Action Declines to Support

Daily Continuous

The quiet declines continued into the close on Friday with prices firming just below the $2.57 – $2.60 zone. Due to a close of weekly prices below the previous week’s low- the technical expectation is for prices to extend the declines further. History tells us that the Labor Day weekend is historically linked with weaker prices so this will be interesting to watch. From a trade perspective, buy the lows of the range and sell on the rally off of a failed test.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Consolidation With In the Range

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The storage report provided little or bias impact so prices spent most of the day consolidating in a tight range. As suggested a few weeks ago — this may be as exciting a trade as Natty will give us for a while.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Declines Extend

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In the Weekly section on Sunday — I expected a decline to be retesting lows around $2.69 — well I missed that decline by more than $.10. Now what – perhaps additional declines to $2.47 may occur but they are likely to be brief. My expectations are that the low end of the new range should be completed (near term)– from which prices will rally back to test resistance.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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OK – Support Zones Tested

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What can I say — my expectations were a day early and I got my test for support a day later than when I suspected. Regardless, the market is defining the upcoming range that it will likely trade within during the next couple of weeks.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.74, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Working Through the Kinks

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Prices did not find the weakness I was looking for yesterday — though there was a slight decline but not achieving what I was expecting. They did find a solid bid and ran that into the close and in the late market. Maybe establishing the low end of the new range will take some time in order to work through some support zones. Currently, prices seem to want to test the high end of the range per my Weekly section yesterday.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.74, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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