Category: Daily Call

Prices Down to April Support

Daily Continuation

Prices extended lower re-testing the lows from April on the continuation chart. Questions remain about a lower extension below $2.00 or a rebound up to late April highs.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Important Period for Near Term Prices

Daily Continuation

Good to see the declines continue to test last month’s lows and now the question remains what about $2.00. Been here twice before and further declines will be interesting to watch. Folks in the press attribute the declines to production and recession fears. Not sure about the latter but according to the EIA report yesterday — Dry gas production continues to be strong. Recession issues will be offset by the power demand that was sighted in the Weekly Summary of the Storage report yesterday. We are at the low end of the range– trade accordingly.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Test Continues — Small Bounce Off of Lows

Daily Continuation

The movement of late is now testing the the lows and giving up the premium afforded the June contract during last months declines. It was interesting to watch the bounce off of $2.11 and prices firmed through the close. This will continue to get interesting as prices are now going to deal with another bearish storage report.Play the low end of the range.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Decline Continued

Daily Continuation

As discussed yesterday, wanted to see the results of a deeper test of support and started to gain a concept of the result as prices bounce slightly off the daily lows. Believe the summer range for price support is being established until the summer forecasts get firmer. There is no reason for the shorts to panic and no reason for them to capture profits only the next month or so will determine as the forecasts provide guidance.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Further Declines Signal Additional Consolidation

Daily Continuation

Prices declined yesterday but did not break below the lows from the June lows at May expiration. Expect further tests of support, declining into the lows of June during April. From there we will get a better sense of what is coming.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Will Price Action Continue Upward

Daily Continuous

At the time of this writing, it looks like trade want to re-visit the lows from last week — but as always be careful of trading on the Sunday action. Last week had some important strength discussed in the Weekly section, but it was a slight technical improvement to the bearish bias. We continue to be a range trade environment — so behave accordingly.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Expected Test of Closing Action

Daily Continuation

Mentioned earlier in the week that the expectation of prices to test support after June took over as prompt and that is what happened yesterday — but I must admit that closing some of the premium afforded to June was not expected. I thought the price action would carry down further into the closing range of the May contract. Apologies for the lack of a Daily but I did not know I would be without internet while up in Montana yesterday. The bearish storage report should of done more damage to prices than yesterday’s declines. We shall see if there is additional extensions lower today.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.36, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

First Test Fails

Daily Continuous

Prices tested the near term resistance around the 50 day SMA but could not muster the strength to break through. Then on the storage release yesterday prices declined, but came no where near the support strength area around $2.00. Are bias’s starting to move?

Major Support:$2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.36, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Different Tune This Week

Daily Continuous

Change of pace yesterday as prices maintained strength for the 2nd day in a row, which is a different tune that has played on previous Mondays. The rally could not close above the key resistance area which infers a lack of buyers to push through that resistance area. Perhaps, or it may just need more commitment. Perhaps the storage report this week will support trade, varying from recent weeks. Am traveling tomorrow and there will be no Daily on Thursday.

Major Support:$2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.36, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Seen This Before

Daily Continuous

Been and seen this Monday behavior before only to spend the next two days pounding the gains going into the storage release. Is this run different?– only because it set a new recent high and came close to the 50 Day SMA which has not been sniffed since December. Time will tell if the rally can break above the commonly watched level.

Major Support:$2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.36, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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