Category: Daily Call

Declines took prices down to and below the calendar Nov lows (clearly bearish) but did not close below and then recovered after the primary market close. Not sure if were going to test the October lows on this collapse but it is likely to occur (perhaps at the first of the year— see Weekly history comments). I apologize for missing the Daily yesterday — but that will not be the only occurrence for the rest of the month as I am traveling and celebrating the season. I will try to do my best but……..

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.18-$6.29, $6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.42, $7.532, $7.60-7.75, 8.021

First down , then up, now this week down– lots of gapping going on. The wonderful world of trading temps and changing forecasts. That said, there is no gap in the charts as the low last Friday $6.219 and the high last night was $6.23 but there is a substantial gap from where the last trade was on Friday (guess they were expecting cold forecasts). Oh well, still in the range and just waiting for folks to play during the Holiday week. Stick to the ranges discussed for the last month or so and be sure to read the Weekly

Major Support: $6.39, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.42, $7.532, $7.60-7.75, 8.021

Prices held firmish on the close but it also looked like the market is not comfortable being above $7.00. The action held that area for a while yesterday — but then relented and in the post market extended downward and continue to tonight. Technical indications say nothing has changed from yesterday (high side middle of the range). Talking to fundamental traders, cash prices have been firming (not talking CA which has been above $30) of late with the cold weather coming. Will be interesting to see if cash leads the NYMEX which has not been a common occurrence of late.

Major Support: $6.39, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.42, $7.532, $7.60-7.75, 8.021

What took prices higher got eliminated yesterday as prices declined to close the gap from Monday, only to find some support at the end. Still remaining in the higher third of the range prices have traded this month– there is little to trade until the market decides to trade on winter or the LNG facility staying offline indefinitely.

Major Support: $6.39, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.42, $7.532, $7.60-7.75, 8.021,

Two days in a row that a rally off of changing patterns in the forecast have kept prices elevated. Lots of folks (fundamental) are convinced that the winter will not provide enough to offset the dry gas production gains made during the last few months– so I have been told– I have no clue because I choose not to get whip-sawed by following the swings on forecasts. From the technical perspective– the market tested and set a lower low in October then promptly reversed. Late last month (into December) prices again collapsed but could not even test the lower low from October, before finding support. Now we have a market rebounding, seemingly wanting to test the highs from last month between $7.42-$7.60. This will get interesting if the forecasts continue to support the run.

Major Support: $6.39, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.42, $7.532, $7.60-7.75, 8.021,

The large gap opening was exciting but the trade during the day retraced a large chunk of the gap, but not closing the gap. Would expect the gap to close during the day sometime this week, unless the forecast remain cold longer in the month. Mentioned the $7.00 area yesterday and that will continue to be the key are of resistance, all based upon the weather forecasts.

Major Support: $6.39, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance$6.687, $7.038 $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

Last week prices gapped lower on Sunday night only to extend declines later on Monday and Tuesday. This week the market has decided to gap higher on Sunday night. Last week the market spent the week retracing the declines– not sure it will happen this week (retracing and closing the gap created on Sunday) but with natural gas nothing is impossible. Welcome to the world of trading a commodity based on weather forecasts. Due to that relationship — it would be wise to expect severe volatility in the coming weeks. Evaluate the range that trades today for location to placing positions and expect the $7.00 area to bring some sellers– whether enough to blunt the run will have to be determined.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $6.18, $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance:$6.45-$6.48, $6.687, $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

Prices have jumped in the late trade and are starting to challenge the gap from Monday and last week. Not sure what that is all about as the trade is on light volume and in front of the storage report (all my fundamental friends have told is bearish). As spoken previously, sell the rallies but keep stops very tight as we are still in winter and no one knows what the forecasts will bring.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47, $5.337
Major Resistance: $6.45-$6.48, $6.687, $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

After dropping over $2.00 in six trade days, price declines slowed yesterday. This may lead to a brief (but potentially violent) rally. Would wait for that rally to initiate new short positions– but remember prices are subject to weather forecast changes– so keep some stops tight to the new shorts.