Category: Daily Call

Sunday night prices were weaker, extending the trade bias late last week. This decline should establish a higher low from last month and then should continue to build a base from which to move towards the spring/early summer rally.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Have been looking for a serious test of support zones after last week’s continuous gains in price — largely due to late shorts getting gutted. As discussed in the Weekly section this past weekend, the gains last week were primarily fueled by open interest declines hence short covering. Now the bears seek to control the movement by once again establishing new lows. In the Weekly section, there was a discussion of how the market seemed to be sending a message that perhaps a near term significant low had been achieved, now a base for a Q2 rally was in place. We will get this hypothesis confirmed or rebuked in the coming days. The market will be defining its intentions shortly.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

After the big drop on Monday — selling slowed yesterday. Perhaps we are going to develop a range for trade near term — the rest of the week will define. I have received some news regarding family that will keep me from publishing the Daily tomorrow. If it is the range concept — would be a seller above $3.00 prompt and a buyer below $2.60.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Prices from the start on Sunday night collapsed down to an initial support level at $2.70 leaving little doubt as to coming test of the resistance area from Feb trade. Trade started to find less sellers, testing the historically significant January low,$2.612. Finally breaking below to test the the highs of weeks ending 02/10, 17 and 24 were between $2.577 and $2.657, and two of the three weekly closes were between $2.504 and $2.580. Time will tell if this area holds — but this is the type of decline I was discussing last week. My initial thoughts were the test would occur this week but natty wasted no time in achieving this expectation.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

I have been expecting the bears to make a push against the gains and formulate a decline to support– May have been all wrong and the market is consolidating the gains from expiration this week– potentially setting up additional gains. The storage report was bearish (as expected) compared to the averages and last year– but the market hardly flinched. Going to work the support levels for a consolidation phase going into next week – stops tight as not totally committed to the theory.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Not sure that decline to the high side of the expiration process from last month — but it is what it is. Would of preferred a more dominant decline but it is a start. The storage report may provide the required strength to test support levels into the $3.35-$3.45 zone.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

As expected, the bears got a little to far out over their skis and prices bounce off of the sub $2.00 low. Shocking — as the late coming bears (in the March contract) got gutted in the expiration process. Hard to announce that the reversal (as close as it comes to being an outside week reversal) has happened but a series of higher lows in the daily trade will be the confirming piece of information. Events like last week (see Weekly section) are usually the gas markets favorite way of announcing a bias change but it will need to confirm.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance $2.61, $2.657, $3.536, 3.595

Well the Puts are safe and now how far is this expiration run going to take prices. Mentioned over the last week or so about the short covering event that will be coming to the market– we are witnessing the short covering in the March contract — how far does this take remaining contracts is anyone’s guess. Dipping into the summer contracts has started showing some returns.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance $2.61, $2.657, $3.536, 3.595