Category: Daily Call

Not sure why prices were down on the early trade on Monday — lack of volume and folks trading likely the culprits. The short term weather had significant demand that will start to show the power demand expected this summer and the potential impacts on storage balances. Went into the medium term impacts for gas in the Weekly section as well as some historical flavor for what happens in July trade. Not convinced that the upcoming week will challenge the $3.00 area, but technical indications are that is a matter of time.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

It was good to see the August contract come back to the July expiration — so we don’t have to discuss that convergence. Now we get a storage number on the heels of a fairly aggressive fundamental demand week according to some of my fundamental traders. Still range trading between $2.47 and $2.80 — so pick your side.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

Don’t believe we are going to get a solid test of the late Feb high over $3.00 during the expiration process. The market should test that level during calendar July. Play the recent range leading into the Aug take-over.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.707, $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

Go into more specifics in the Weekly Section, but sentiment has changed in the gas market–yes prices are low compared to the last year but the near term has a more bullish bias to it than it did a month ago. A lot of the buying last week was mostly short covering (open interest declined 57,000 contracts — Thursday to Thursday). I do not need to remind you that short covering is great for a short term rally but not indicative to a long term that will take prices higher over time. Stay tuned this week, to see how the market responds to expiration and the recent short covering.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.707, $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

Informative trade as the storage report punished prices but prices rebounded from the lows. That would qualify as a confirmation of the range being established for the short term. Play the range from the lows of the week to the highs of the week.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$$2.685, $2.707, $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

As suggested, prices have now started to develop as prices declined to find an area of support (zone around the breakout zone in the mid $2.40’s) then prices to rally back into the declines from yesterday. Today will be interesting as the volume will help define the upcoming range for prices in the near term after the storage report is released.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$$2.685, $2.707, $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Could not upload the current Daily Chart but prices declined to test the zone where the market broke out last week. Normal for a short covering rally to run out of buyers — then the profit takers take profits on the run. Now the market will establish the potential low end of a new trading range -only to test the highs already established.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$$2.685, $2.707, $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Disscussed in the Weekly section one of the results of breaking the decline trend line of resistance… and that violation triggers a substantial short covering rally…. (occurred yesterday). While that may happen there is also a third option is that prompt gas works its way through the declining trend line of resistance, which adds substantial evidence that a very significant low is in place, rallies for a few days, which it should as some short covering is absorbed. This event would take prompt July to the area around the April high ($2.529), is a likely objective for the July prompt. Little did I know that would occur in three days (primarily one day). Look for prices to consolidated and re-test some of the gains from yesterday.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595