Category: Daily Call

Another Range Bound Monthly Trade

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For the last five months, contracts have developed a “range” shortly after becoming prompt and Oct is doing the same. This trade behavior has limited any chance for the market to breakout or break down, which is why the break above the 50 Day SMA was short lived and died quickly (discussed in the Weekly section). The Q4 rally could provide the environment to break above the current range. If it doesn’t will the Nov provide the opportunity? Not sure as it closed last week just above the high side of the current range at $3.20. Play the Oct range.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.897-$2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Storage Report Breaks Down Prices

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The release of the storage data was more of an injection than expected but doesn’t have any sort of dramatic impact on prices through the winter (watch the prompt relationship to Jan’26) in the near term. That is where you will see any concerns about gas this winter to October.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Initial Resistance Holds

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Not sure if there will be more volatility today as prices and volume seemed wired in a tight range. Stick to selling premium in this type of environment.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Resistance Tested

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The 50 day SMA was broken briefly yesterday and likely found a few shorts that wanted to cover, but the inability to extend further higher, sent prices to retreat. That’s is the first try to break above now will prices try it again or are we destined to trade back and test the support zones at $3.00 and down a nickel.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Working on the 50 Day SMA

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Prices finished the week holding some of the strength and opened on Sunday night with strength, now the action seems to be testing the 50 day SMA which may bring in some additional short covering should it break above.

Major Support: $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Storage Release Has Little Impact

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The storage release provided little impact on prices– which in on its own provides some support for the declines being limited.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Recent Gains Hold

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The gains in prices from the expiration and just after, held yesterday which may be an indication of a small change in short term bias. Recent months have held a rally only to be crushed under selling pressure. Now the market is facing a storage release which may give further indication of the bias preference.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Prices Soften as Expected

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Prices declined but recovered from some of the declines by day’s end. This leaves the contract starting to test some of the recent prompt contracts have established. While not conclusive, the rebound has brought some support that may allow for further gains.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Will Strength Continue

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Went into the technical details of the rally last week in the Weekly section. Early trade on Monday and Monday night suggests the market is not comfortable with last week’s trade and expiration, as prices are declining off of the close on Friday. Due to the close a brief correction is clearly called for– the key issue is how far the correction will take prices down. Should the declines be rejected then the resistance around $3.16 will become critical.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Storage Release Supports Gains

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It was clear that the storage release supported the recent gains and gave the momentum to challenge the $3.00 level. We shall see how far the momentum will carry the action but I would caution against loading up on this rally- rather wait and see how the holiday set up plays.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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