Category: Daily Call

Prices Decline Well Short of Gap

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Weakness prevailed but the declines fell short of serious tests of the support provided by the expiration gap. This week should continue to provide clues as to the gap and the term of its existence.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Does the Gap Close?

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Go into the expiration of the Oct contract and expectations on the upcoming month in the Weekly section. From a daily standpoint — would expect the expiration gap to be challenged during the coming week. This will likely set up the lower end for the Nov range of prices.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Premium Suppressed

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I guess I should lighten the suppression comment to “narrowed slightly”. Not much else to say versus the Weekly expectations published last weekend.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Nothing Changes

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Nothing has changed from my Daily and Weekly comments yesterday.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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October Lives For Three Days

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Not much to say about the last three days of the Oct prompt contract life outside of the range that contracts have maintained all summer. Weakness has been the trend of the expiration’s this year so would think there should be some this month as well. Nov has a serious premium discussed in the Weekly section and it is likely that Nov will be brought into the recent range.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Guesses

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Any guesses as to what I will be doing as the market challenges to low side of the summer trading range?

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Market Winding Tighter In Range

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Seems to me that this is starting to feel like a market that is winding its way to an issue. When I was a kid (few days ago) we used to have balsa woods plane that you would wind the rubber band up so tight and throw it in the air- releasing the rubber band to power the plane. This market is behaving the same way as the range gets tighter and tighter within the larger range — something is going to give. Whether the plane takes off or crashes into the lawn and the band breaks is unknown. Stick with the range trade but start to lighten up on selling premium.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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What To Make

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What are we to make of that move on little fundamental support out side of the energy complex of commodities. Doubt this will hold over night as the light trade of the after market will find sellers seeking the $2.80’s. It does nothing to the directional bias (range trade between $3.00-$2.50) that has held for the summer.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Quiet Trade For Birthday

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Enjoyed the Birthday celebration and was not startled to see that the market did not do anything in my absence. Still in the summer range with no serious directional bias. I have no idea how many times I have said those words over the last 3 months — but consolidation processes behave like this. Hold on– it will break one way or another.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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No Serious Action on the Storage

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Nothing to add from the storage data except confirmation that the market is real comfortable trading between $2.80 and $2.50. Time will tell– but in the mean time I will be late on the Weekly report (Tuesday) and there will be no Daily for next Monday as I am celebrating the anniversary of my birth. Yee Haw.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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