Category: Daily Call

Immediate Mission Accomplished

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Wanted see a test of the September expiration and got a solid run at it yesterday. Now what — explained in the Weekly section of the website what will happen either way.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Saw That Coming

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Not like we didn’t see that decline coming — but now it gets interesting as the market still need to decline into the September expiration and then break through the support zones down to $2.47. As discussed in the Weekly, this decline may last more than just a day — so patience is a virtue in this area — let the trade indicate the move.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Was Off Base

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Well, guess I was a little off base when prices only declined to $2.647 which was well above the close and expiration of the September contract. The Labor Day trend, though, has not completed yet so perhaps the prognostication will prove relevant. Time will tell — storage release — yee haw, the gap between 5 year and this year continues to narrow but the story remains the same — we got plenty of gas in the ground. The bears have to realize that depending on forecasts and actuality, that “surplus” can disappear quickly in November. Trade wise the top of the range now is $3.00 and expect selling there.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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September Goes Quietly

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Staying within the range that September contract had developed, it went out on a quiet note towards the low end of the range it had developed. Now we have a fresh Oct contract with tropical disturbances (bearish) and the Labor Day weekend trends (bearish before/or after the holiday). Then you include my prediction in the Weekly analysis, that the new prompt would likely give up any premium it had to Sept and you have my prediction for the next two days of trade. Won’t hear from me until after the holiday.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Two Days Left — Range Rockin

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As discussed in the Weekly area — would expect the premium afforded to the October contract to dissolve after the September contract expires. Perhaps, the premium dissipates during the expiration– we will see. From a trade perspective watch the premium vs the September movement.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Startling Response to Bullish Report

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When prices don’t rally on bullish news (storage report) then you have a segment of folks lining up to keep the price low– question is — how long can they keep it suppressed before another short covering rally like two weeks ago. It is a bearish seasonal period though but running out of prompt.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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If Not Now– When?

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Prices continued the declines and are now clearly wanting to test the calendar July and late Jun lows– Then what happens but the test needs to occur.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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The Ranges Keep Getting Quieter

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Prices stayed quiet after the initial declines– patience is the best trading advise I can provide — play the outer ranges and if bored sell premium.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Where Do We Go — Nowhere

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Discussed the possibility of price action dying during the summer and staying in a range. My worst fears seem to be occurring.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Price Action Declines to Support

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The quiet declines continued into the close on Friday with prices firming just below the $2.57 – $2.60 zone. Due to a close of weekly prices below the previous week’s low- the technical expectation is for prices to extend the declines further. History tells us that the Labor Day weekend is historically linked with weaker prices so this will be interesting to watch. From a trade perspective, buy the lows of the range and sell on the rally off of a failed test.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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