Category: Daily Call

Heading South — Be Careful

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None of the technical indicators show the market is over sold except the Bollinger study that maintains the market is over 2 deviations beyond the 20 week SMA. This provides the short sellers to add to positions and as mentioned in the Weekly section, could send price another $.25 lower. Waiting until I see some divergence in the momentum indicators for starting any length.

Major Support:, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Now Were Rollin

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After the break down extension occurs and now the bears are rolling in the market. Momentum indicators are not over sold, the only technical indicator is that prices are well below the 2 standard deviations from the 20 week SMA. We all know that is not a definitive conclusion of a directional change coming immediately but likely in the near future. I am flat so lets get this ball rolling downward kids– how low do we go???

Major Support:, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Finally — a Break

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After the attempts we finally got a break down under $2.00 yesterday, but unlike short covering rallies there was little length liquidation on the break down. So now what — I always remember another trader who years ago mentioned to that finally breaking support (or resistance) is like the dog who loves to chase cars– barking, growling only to catch up with the car when it slowed down and the dog has no clue what to do. Lets see if the dogs (bears) can deal with their success.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Workin’ Hard For the Break At $2.00

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I am reminded of a tune where the lyrics say “workin hard for the money….” That defines the gas trade of recent — the bears want that breakdown so bad– to see what lies below. As mentioned in the Weekly section there is this type of support well into the mid $1.90’s and then just below that for another $.15. Perhaps they believe that the fundamentals warrant prices down to a multi decade low below $1.40. That is why there are markets — representing differing views and speculation. I am looking for technical divergences.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Spinning Wheels

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Just to confirm what a nerd I am with this market — I have decided to watch the market in 5 minute increments for a change. Yesterday, trade came in selling for the until about 8 am Central time then spent the next few hours consolidating before building a small rally into expiration. Why do you ask why I bring this up– this consolidation type trading is extremely boring for this trader so I just to look for anything that can give me a directional bias. Not so yesterday. Play the range discussed in the Daily yesterday and if I wake up early enough tomorrow I will proved some key technical details — if i don’t (may go skiing) well you know what to do.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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$2.00 Holding Firm — So Far

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Not much to say about the technical side of trade — with the exception that $2.00 and just above seems to be finding some buyer. Went into the expectations in the Weekly should that break earlier, so hold on and see what happens (or sell some premium in the options market).

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Declines Start Consolidation

Daily Consolidation

Nothing more than previously discussed from a technical standpoint, with major support zones just below trade. With the upcoming storage report, perhaps the bears are looking for a flashpoint to add to the shorts.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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My Apologies No New Brilliance

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Nothing new in striking technical analysis other than what was said yesterday and in the Weekly section earlier this week.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Seems to Test 2023 Support

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Understand the large gap from last Friday to yesterday was inclusive of the discount that March maintains to the Feb expiration– So all I can theorize is this bear market wants to test the numerous support zones mention in the Weekly area and then see what happens. Good luck picking your low.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.45, $2.56, $2.64, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

What To Do?

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My response to that heading is NOTHING. Go into some history and options in the Weekly section, but this discount issue needs to get resolved.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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