Category: Daily Call

Well That Is Interesting

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Did not see that move at the end of the trade day. Outcry session closed under normal action and then prices jumped $.10 in less than 10 minutes (after hours light volume but significant volume) almost looking like some sort of fundamental news hit the wire. Regardless, that shows the potential impact of a short covering event– not sure if that is the beginning but can guarantee that the slight rally did not have any impact on the short level of open interest. Most interesting to me is the storage report later in the week and how prices react. There is a potential, for some signals that market may give on how prices trade through the rest of the week.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Contrary to Expectations

Daily Continuous with RSI

Several of the reasons that form my conclusion that this current decline may be coming to an end, are found in the Weekly section of the web site, but the market wanted to make sure I may have jumped ahead of myself by extending the declines slightly on the light volume President’s Day. To frank I did mention that the is likely coming just not sure when. Well it didn’t yesterday. Due to the condition of the oversold market the value of some call spreads later in the summer are reasonable.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Bearish Storage Has Little Effect

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Not sure what fundamental expectations were, but after recovering from some “crab cakes” yesterday- I learned that the storage report was a smaller withdrawal than expected. Prices initially declined, but then during the day, found some buying. My apologies for missing the Daily but in my condition you would not wanted to read my insights. All I can say is “looking for a bottom”.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Seven in a Row

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For the seventh consecutive day prices closed down on the day but the declines have not placed the condition of over sold — but it is starting to become a potential issue. In the mean time, work the trend shaving some profits on the declines in increments. I have left over $.30 on the table but not looking make it back grabbing the knife. There is solid momentum in this move as prices decline through support zones from over 42 weeks ago.

Major Support:, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Declines Just Continue

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Not much to say that hasn’t been discussed of late. If you are playing this decline — continue to play it on short expectations and gain. If your playing with length ask “why” — never been good at the knife catching business– look for some divergences in the momentum indicators before entering.

Major Support:, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Heading South — Be Careful

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None of the technical indicators show the market is over sold except the Bollinger study that maintains the market is over 2 deviations beyond the 20 week SMA. This provides the short sellers to add to positions and as mentioned in the Weekly section, could send price another $.25 lower. Waiting until I see some divergence in the momentum indicators for starting any length.

Major Support:, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Now Were Rollin

Daily Continuous

After the break down extension occurs and now the bears are rolling in the market. Momentum indicators are not over sold, the only technical indicator is that prices are well below the 2 standard deviations from the 20 week SMA. We all know that is not a definitive conclusion of a directional change coming immediately but likely in the near future. I am flat so lets get this ball rolling downward kids– how low do we go???

Major Support:, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Finally — a Break

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After the attempts we finally got a break down under $2.00 yesterday, but unlike short covering rallies there was little length liquidation on the break down. So now what — I always remember another trader who years ago mentioned to that finally breaking support (or resistance) is like the dog who loves to chase cars– barking, growling only to catch up with the car when it slowed down and the dog has no clue what to do. Lets see if the dogs (bears) can deal with their success.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Workin’ Hard For the Break At $2.00

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I am reminded of a tune where the lyrics say “workin hard for the money….” That defines the gas trade of recent — the bears want that breakdown so bad– to see what lies below. As mentioned in the Weekly section there is this type of support well into the mid $1.90’s and then just below that for another $.15. Perhaps they believe that the fundamentals warrant prices down to a multi decade low below $1.40. That is why there are markets — representing differing views and speculation. I am looking for technical divergences.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Spinning Wheels

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Just to confirm what a nerd I am with this market — I have decided to watch the market in 5 minute increments for a change. Yesterday, trade came in selling for the until about 8 am Central time then spent the next few hours consolidating before building a small rally into expiration. Why do you ask why I bring this up– this consolidation type trading is extremely boring for this trader so I just to look for anything that can give me a directional bias. Not so yesterday. Play the range discussed in the Daily yesterday and if I wake up early enough tomorrow I will proved some key technical details — if i don’t (may go skiing) well you know what to do.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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