Category: Daily Call

Daily Continuous

Discussed yesterday the historical seasonal norms after the market trades to its Memorial Day weakness– which were evident with the brief rally yesterday. Going to put together a table of the June calendar rallies for tomorrow’s Daily. I did not site the weekly internal trends from last week in the Weekly report and I apologize. Volume fell last week 33% in average daily volume versus the previous week (last week average daily volume over 444,188 contracts versus the average daily the week before 663,043 contracts). Remember the previous week was the weekly reversal discuss then. Open interest declined last week by 30,418 positions (recognizing there was a contract expiration). As discussed previously– follow the volume trends in the near future.

Daily Continuous

Prompt gas followed history, drifting south after the holiday and closed the week lower after the expiring June contract extended the weakness associated with expiration’s of late. Now, does the rhyme continue with a rally in the July contract. Strength this week will lead to that potential– early trade Sunday night is showing some support off of tests of support.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.67, $2.844

Daily Continuous

The expiration took the prompt June down to the key breakout level from earlier in the month around $2.45. July was afforded a premium of a little over $.20 during the process — which will likely lead to weakness as July takes over as prompt.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.67, $2.844

Daily Continuous

Early weakness tests near term support only to spend most of the day rebounding. Discussed over the last few months — expiration is not likely to follow any technical interpretations– rather follow who is left and are they long or short. That can lead to wild price range trade– I prefer hanging to the side.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.67, $2.844

Daily Continuous

Discuss the effect of the Weekly reversal last week in the Weekly area — but a reversal is a reversal and should be respected as such. You know my attitude about the expiration process and not trading the prompt but focusing on next month and with the $.25 premium placed on July it would seem to be a reasonable time to evaluate the possible seasonal weakness into July’s early tenure before getting too aggressive.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.46, $2.67, $2.844

Daily Continuous

Price action tried to extend the recent run and did on a closing basis, but after the close the declines started in the after-market. Not sure where all this is headed as I discussed expectations into the expiration process in the Weekly section of the website and some have already been met. Be cautious in adding length into the long week end with the history of weakness around the holiday. Taking a long weekend this week so there will be no Daily on Friday and hope everyone has a wonderful weekend.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.46, $2.67, $2.844

Daily Continuous with RSI

Was expecting a correction from the recent run per my comments in the Daily yesterday, not sure it is complete especially with the storage report coming in a couple of days, but it may extend down to the $2.51ish area before it is done. That type of decline will moderate the daily RSI and the weekly RSI– key element to watch is volume should the declines continue.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.46, $2.67, $2.844

Daily Continuous

Not sure if you caught the theme of the Daily’s last week, but the market seems to be signalling a change in bias. Go into some of the supporting details in the Weekly section, but suffice to say, gas may be heading into a bullish period at a historically bullish season of the year. This does not mean straight up as some of the short covering has already occurred (see Weekly) and the Memorial holiday usually provide some weakness, should you be interested in participating.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.46, $2.67, $2.844

Daily Continuation

Been discussing the high side resistance being the expiration gap from the Feb expiration- and now it closed yesterday. From here you will notice the 200 day SMA just above yesterday’s highs– it should provide some resistance. A break above that level and there may be some momentum to take prices higher as there is likely to be some associated short covering. To the downside will be the storage release –possibly pressuring price rallies.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.168-$2.411 (gap), $2.46, $2.67