Is It Going To Consolidate Gains?

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Interesting day trade as prices firmed after open interest fell on Wednesday. It may be that the trade is starting to develop a more positive bias it will need some additional gains — however small– in the near term.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.62, $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

Suspected This

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Want to apologize for any issues with yesterday’s Daily — (there was only one complaint) — but it reminds me to remind all of you that if you don’t have a Daily in your email — it maybe an email issue — so be sure to log in and check the website. Unless I am ill there should be a posting.

On to the market– once again a big short covering event ran out of steam there were no follow through buyers to build on the price. Not over yet as I noticed that total open interest had a small gain yesterday (according to the CME) while the February contract had significant declines in open interest. Perhaps the short covering was just rolling forward and selling a differed contract but covering the Feb exposure. Time will tell as the week wraps up.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.62, $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

THAT Is A Short-Covering Rally

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The short covering started on Monday as open interest decreased as prices rose, but yesterday was the big run and I don’t have confirmation from the CME– but I expect a significant amount of short open interest left the market. It really means little to the trader as I am waiting to see gains in open interest as prices rally. We have witnessed these types of rallies in the last year only to have prices reverse back lower once the short were eliminated. From my perspective — thankfully, I had stops in just above the resistance area mentioned yesterday– so damage was minimal. Now I want to wait and see how much leg this rally can have.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.00, $2.87, $2.62, $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

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Solid Short Cover Based Rebound

Daily Continuation

It is time to watch the rubber meet the road. The recent rally has been identified as the cold and extended cold coming, forcing some shorts to cover– but watching trade while watching the Championship game– I am witnessing some serious selling taking prices off the high $2.90’s. Have no idea as to the longer range forecasts and really care not. The market is at the high end of the resistance and will be looking at selling resistance.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.62, $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.786-$2.865, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

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Break Above Resistance Continues

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Prices broke above near term resistance and held strong through the end of the week. Due to the strength, I expect prices to remain firm today regardless of the late Sunday weakness showing the start of declines, regardless, the market is likely to remain range bound this coming week.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance, $2.786-$2.865, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

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Slight Break Out Above Resistance

Daily Continuation

Not sure you want to load up the bank on this slight break out above the recent range. The market trades on the weather reports so any long term positioning is rather risky. Short term (daily trades) can be profitable on a very short horizon.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.62, $2.786-$2.865, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

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New Year, Same Old Range

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Prices started with a bump early then just fell back into the old range– this market needs an issue to catch the traders eye — one way or the other.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.62, $2.786-$2.865, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

Range Action to Start New Trade Year

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Not a whole lot of technical data points to discuss in this range bound market. Discussed the historical aspect of January trade in the Weekly Section and highly recommend you review it. The market is likely to test the high end of the recent range and that will likely bring out sellers.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.62, $2.786-$2.865, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

Quiet Range Action

Daily Continuation

Apologies for the server meltdown yesterday but just was discussing the continuation of the recent range between $2.40 — $2.62 regardless of the discount afforded to Feb as the new prompt. No reason to change expectations and would just like to pass on sincere wishes for a prosperous 2024.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.62, $2.786-$2.865, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65

No Fuss, No Muss, No Movement

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Can’t remember a Holiday period so quiet — sometimes the swings can be quite dramatic with the light trade — not so much last week and yesterday. This is now the first month’s expiration with a price discount in the upcoming prompt that we have had in a while. Don’t think it means or creates any major opportunity for the trade. Suggest letting Jan run a quiet expiration and evaluating afterward.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.786-$2.865, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
, $3.65