Category: Daily Call

Daily Continuous

My response to that heading is NOTHING. Go into some history and options in the Weekly section, but this discount issue needs to get resolved.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Daily Continuous

Prices got a solid bid during the night on Wed night — so much that it challenged $2.88+. Did not last long, when the market came in and declines started in earnest and broke below the previous close. Interesting to watch — but I would not trade this market until it defines solid support and resistance. Remember, that the Feb is now at a $.40 premium to March and March is trading in and below a major support zone.. Going to take a casual approach to this expiration — focusing more on the continuation charts.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Daily Continuous

Prices are not going to $2.00 (at least not in this decline) as the usual suspects of sellers dwindled as prices challenged $2.20. In yesterday’s consolidation trade the gap from earlier in the week was closed and prices extended up another dime. Now we have a storage report and the price remains in the middle of the current near term.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Daily Continuous

As discussed yesterday, the market seemed to be running out of sellers and is now consolidating on the next extension of declines and/or a correction with in the range established from the early Dec lows.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Daily Continuous

Prices opened the day and week with a gap and then proceeded lower before spending the remainder of the day gaining back some of the losses. The open may have been a tad aggressive and per behavior last month, the market ran out of sellers. Not expecting a cover rally but the market is likely going to consolidate the recent declines.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Daily Continuation

Discussed the technical damaged suffered by prompt gas this past week, in the Weekly section– from there I can propose some of the following trade ideas — expect February settlement to be discount to January ($2.621). Though prices in the late Sunday trader are already challenging- expect March to find support/sponsorship between +/- $2.100 (March’s December low was $2.098, the low of a daily reversal) and $2.240 (the past week’s low was 2.237). As mentioned in the Weekly section–expect the historically important January low to be traded during the two days following February expiration. Failure of March to rally during the coming week will suggest a strong possibility of a test/violation of the continuation December low ($2.235).

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Daily Continuous

After all the drama from the combined Monday/Tuesday trade the action and volatility slowed yesterday as the prices entered the comfortable range trade of the last few months. This behavior should likely continue for the next couple of trade days. Will be interesting to watch the next two storage reports have any impact on price action.

Major Support:, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.694, $2.62, $2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Daily Continuous

Go into last week’s trade and the results in the Weekly Section–From a daily perspective the market is confirming the lack of follow through in the light Monday trade as prices rejected any type of follow-through of the rally. One element discussed in the Weekly section is the historically extreme premium the Feb has to Mar. Check out the chart below and you will see that the extreme variance is starting to narrow.

February less March Contracts

Mentioned in the Daily last week that a source of the short covering was the Feb contracts being bought to cover the short — Then I mentioned that the short covering rally had a slight gain in open interest– the differential can’t confirm that the reason for the gain was those traders who were covering shorts “rolled” them into March but looking at the the breakout in the differential spread may be an indication. If you cover a short but roll it to the next month there is no change in open interest, but you have sold the next month — putting pressure on that contract. This will be interesting to trade in the coming week as March may gain to narrow the differential while Feb declines.