Category: Daily Call

Expiration Gap

Daily Continuation

Discuss the expiration gap and some of the history regarding the premium for the Nov contract in the Weekly Section. Would not expect the gap to be closed immediately (perhaps if at all), but the market does not seem to setting up for a rally into the Q4 as it does historically. Would expect the Nov prompt to establish a range just as the previous five contracts have done trading as prompt.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Expiration

Daily Continuation

Do you like craps or roulette? That is how I am assessing the expiration of the Oct contract. Does it run up or does it likely to decline. See you next week.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Nothing Has Changed from Yesterday

Daily Continuous

Can’t say yesterday brought any clarity to the mud puddle we a in. My thoughts are this month is going to trade similar to the last couple with some minor short covering exposing additional selling at higher prices. Tomorrow is option expiration which used to provide some volatility — but I am skeptical of this month.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Key Support Zone

Daily Continuous

Prices headed south to the key areas discussed in the Weekly section that held and found some support. Will be very curious about the upcoming storage release and the market’s response on Thursday.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Where’s the Momentum

Daily Continuous

While the extension of the declines was expected, but the move ran out of steam from the volume perspective. This causes a pause in the trader’s minds as the extension downward has areas of support to cover the shorts that are sending prices down seems to be limiting the risk perspective of the short sellers.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Look For A Test Early In the Week

Daily Continuous

Would expect a further decline in prices after last week’s close– the main question remains will declines challenge the $2.80-$2.75 zone (weekly lows from August and September). If not where does the Q4 run commence — read the Weekly for further ideas.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Back In the Saddle (Range)

Daily Continuous

Price could not break above resistance on the storage data– means the market is unlikely to move in an direction in the near term. Continue to work the range trade.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Bouncing Between

Daily Continuous

Price action bounced within the range that has developed – watch to see how the market responds to the storage action coming.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Bizarre Trade Become Strength

Daily Continuation

Mentioned that action in the after market trade yesterday, but it turned out a useless indicator for future prices as the market continued to gain. Now approaching the earlier month highs for the price range– but should be continued as resistance for near term trade.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Weird Action

Daily Continuous

Just when the after market open yesterday afternoon at 5:00 pm CDT my tick chart showed a crash to $2.86 on just under 2500 contracts. Got no clue what caused that except perhaps some one with length decided it was time to close its books or someone left a bad trade in their system. Prices then spent the next 10 minutes rebounding back above $3.00. Yesterday’s action becomes somewhat irrelevant to this analyst and won’t waist any more of your time speculating on it. Per yesterday’s Daily continue to play range forming for the October contract.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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