Prices tried to expand the low side of the recent range but did not challenge the major support starting at $2.64. Suggest the same range as last week.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support : $2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance: $3.00, $3.16
The market failed at resistance and now wants to challenge the support side of the recent range between $2.58-$2.64 we shall see how much the market adds to the positions in the coming days. Keep and eye on daily volume levels over the next couple of days — lets see how many folks want to sell into Nov prices this early in the month.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support : $2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance: $3.00, $3.16
Spoke last week about the range that was developing for the Nov contract and discussed the expansion of the as well as the trend regarding highs and lows (Weekly section). That said, given the higher lows traded during July and August the long term downtrend appears to be evolving into a wide contracting trading range.
Wanted to alert folks to the premiums currently awarded to December and to January gas (their ability to hold those premiums, are going to be critical to the continuation of the current range. Given that uncertainty, Stick to the range for buying and selling discussed last week as the range has not dramatically changed in the last week.
The bulls tried to set up for a break out above $3.00 only to fail after the data release. Not sure how the data was interpreted as bearish to kill the gains but that fundamental information is over my pay grade. The key from my perspective is the market did not “collapse” but rather held the recent range. Take that as additional confirmation that the bias has changed. Play the suggested ranges from earlier in the week.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support : $2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance: $3.00, $3.16
A higher high that took prices to test the $3.00 only to fail on the first test. That outcome should not be surprising as prices will continue to test the resistance zone. The storage report may bring additional volatility this week.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support : $2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance: $3.00, $3.16
Nothing to add or subtract from yesterday’s comments as the market traded within the same (narrower) range. Keep the same thoughts for establishing or profiting as yesterday.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support : $2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance:$3.00, $3.16
Trying to set a base for the next step higher (should it be the result) prices paused and “consolidated” the recent gains (from expiration or what ever) and now seem to be in a consolidation process. From here, would suggest buying dips on the declines and selling over the $3.10 zone.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support : $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance:$2.618, $3.00, $3.16
The market seems to be changing it’s bias after the expiration last week. Would treat this change with caution until there is solid confirmation of the next and new range.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support :$2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance:$3.00, $3.16
While prices were up and down during yesterday’s expiration, I am going to state that the expiration process was well supported, thereby breaking the trend of the previous expiration’s of 2024 which were all well offered during the process. What does this mean?—The bearish bias (all through this year) is starting to take some hits. The first target is the gap remaining from the premium awarded the Nov contract (even though some of that gap was closed during yesterday’s decline). This will be the first test of a confirmation of a bullish bias change.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support : $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance:$2.618, $3.00, $3.16
Today is expiration and the market has not shown a weakness yet, but the verdict is not yet defined. I continue to reflect on what was identified from the trends of ’24 and will expect some weakness.
Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605 Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856 Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16