Leave For a Week –Nothing Has Changed

Daily Continuous

Discussed the ramifications and expectations in the Weekly area of last weeks expiration. There seems to be buyers supporting the declines at $1.90-$1.85. Not sure if it institutional buying or what but support is there. As discussed in the Weekly – there are some technical divergences showing up in the Daily regarding the momentum indicators so keep your eyes alert. Monday trade seems to want to retest the low side of the range.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Weakness Begets More Weakness Going Into Expiration

Daily Continuation

Found an internet service on my travel’s and updated the Weekly section to bring you my insights. Due to the reduction of access I will use the Weekly section for my reference.

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Retreating From Resistance Failure

Daily Continuous

First Off– will be periodically posting next week and will have sporadic Daily updates until September 4th, as I am traveling into northern Ontario Canada, which maintains limited internet access. Discuss the trading range that the September contract is likely to maintain in the next week or so in the Weekly Section. Will just add that the well offered contract prompt during the expiration is likely to continue. Whether it sets the low for the contract will remain to be seen.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Run Ends at Several Resistance Levels

Daily Continuous

The price run ended yesterday at resistance levels from the lows of weeks ending 07/05 & 07/12 and the highs of weeks ending 07/19 & 07/26, $2.249 – $2.270 – $2.285 -$2.315. During the upcoming run into the annual Q4 highs this area will provide significant importance to any run.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Strength Continues and Closes Above Initial Resistance

Daily Continuous

Action held firm for the day and closed above the initial resistance at $2.18. Storage comes out tomorrow so interest will be how the market trades and settles during the potential (light) volatility day.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Yesterday All Over Again

Daily Continuous

Did you read yesterday’s Daily? Let me remind you… After extending gains to test the 100 day SMA, traders backed off the positive momentum of price action to consolidate at the days low. While not breaking out above– it will be today’s trade to see if prices are just going to decline and retest the recent support zones a dime around $2.00. The historical tendency for September has been to trade the high of its tenure during the first two weeks of the calendar month but there have been a few strong Augusts in recent years. A year ago, September conformed to the historical tendency. After falling to forfeit about a dime premium that had been awarded over expired August September ‘23 rallied from an 08/02 low ($2.457) to an 08/09 high ($3.018). In ’20, ’21 and ’22 September remained well – bid into expiration. This action was set up only to give back a chunk of those gains during calendar September (the Labor Day seasonal largely responsible).

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Brief Consolidation of Recent Gains

Daily Consolidation

After extending gains to test the 100 day SMA, traders backed off the positive momentum of price action to consolidate at the days low. While not breaking out above– it will be today’s trade to see if prices are just going to decline and retest the recent support zones a dime around $2.00. The historical tendency for September has been to trade the high of its tenure during the first two weeks of the calendar month but there have been a few strong Augusts in recent years. A year ago, September conformed to the historical tendency. After falling to forfeit about a dime premium that had been awarded over expired August September ‘23 rallied from an 08/02 low ($2.457) to an 08/09 high ($3.018). In ’20, ’21 and ’22 September remained well – bid into expiration. This action was set up only to give back a chunk of those gains during calendar September (the Labor Day seasonal largely responsible).

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Running Into Support

Daily Continuous

Several attempts over the last ten days have attacked the support provided by the earlier lows of calendar 2024. None of which have proven successful. There will come a time (not sure when) that the market chooses a different direction bias– seasonal pressures may delay such a flip but it will occur.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Solid Move Up to Initial Resistance

Daily Continuous

Finally got a little move up to initial resistance — it will be interesting to watch. Still bearish technical input and now all this should be characterized as a counter trend rally to test resistance.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Selling Begets Selling

Daily Continuous

The market is poised to test the lows from earlier in the spring (discussed in the Weekly) and is starting to add to the declines in the Sunday night trade. Not sure if the storm will impact prices as the potential for demand destruction was well known on Friday afternoon. Continue to expect the Q3 low to be established between now and Labor Day weekend.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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