Holiday Quiet Trade

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Just want to reiterate the comments from yesterday and price action had no change to the comments from yesterday’s comments.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00
, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

Friday’s Weakness Likely to Spill Over

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The $.40 collapse in prices on Friday indicates that the run up ran out of steam as prices attacked the $4.30 (and above) area was not surprising as technical indicators confirmed the lack of long term support for higher prices. Today is a light trading day with the Holiday — which presents itself as a potential opportunity to indicate near term bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00
, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

Another Close Over $4.00

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Prices close over the key area of $4 again and is starting look like its comfortable at those levels.Perhaps some of the strength is tied to the price of crude or the idea that the storage release should be a fairly strong number (perhaps eliminating a large chunk of the surplus over the 5 year average). Regardless, of where the strength is sourced — it should be respected and traded.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00
, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

Rally Short Lived

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The Sunday rally was short lived (less that an hour in the open trade), with prices coming back to the high close last week. That is a daily reversal and now lets watch to see if it becomes a weekly reversal. Gather the forecasts changed which abandoned the bulls from Sunday– such is life when you are playing weather forecasts.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:
$3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20

Daily Close At the Highs

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Go into the impact of the close last Friday and Daily impacts in the Weekly section but the open on Sunday night challenge some of the thoughts. One thought remains from the price action is the rally on Sunday night will likely run into serious selling at some point, from my perspective trading this rally will require tight stops and remember that the market is over- bought and keep you eyes on Bollinger Band study which has the price action well over the two standard deviation band (Upper band is at $4.10 currently).

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:
$3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20, $4.378

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Solid Gains on Bearish Release

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Trade started strong and what I thought was bearish storage release, prices stayed supported. That may be a clue in itself for the near term.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.631-$3.681
, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20

Comparatively, A Quiet Day

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Compared to some of the recent trade days this year, yesterday have a “calm” day in terms of volatility. Perhaps is is just a set up for the storage data release or think of any thing else you want to. After last week’s reversal off of the high — I am going to stick with the bearish perspective from a general bias perspective — but will take advantage of any volatility that comes my way

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.631-$3.681
, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20

Strength To Weakness

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Similar intra-day trade behavior as Monday– prices started strong only to give up the gains as the day went on. Today is the set up for the storage release so I would doubt anything volatile happens. That being said — it seems that any change in the weather forecasts bring out the volatility.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.631-$3.681
, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20

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Prices Rebound Off of Friday Retreat

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As suggested yesterday, that the January range has been developed with the exception of support. Granted, the lows from last week are the first target but that should be tested before the end of the month. The highs, discussed in the Weekly, will likely present resistance.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.631-$3.681
, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20

Excitement for Volatility May Be Waning

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Last week’s reversal provided several divergences that put a cap on effects of any further upward run in prices. Discuss those divergences in the Weekly area. Suffice to say there are some significant selling zones above the weekly close. Not saying that price action can’t get back up to $4 and above- but will have to find significant buyers at several times.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.631-$3.681
, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00

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