Category: Daily Call

A Brief(?) Rebound

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The market rebounded off of the declines from Monday — some of the gains may have been associated with the options expiring — and we will see today. A rhyme with 2014 — will lead to further weakness — testing support. In 2008, (did not discuss in the Weekly) prices held into early July. In 2008, it is the only year (last 25 years) that prices held the February highs over Jan highs. Market seems to defining it’s near term bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.16-$4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Expectations of the “Rhyme”

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Discussed from a historical perspective the few times the Feb trade took out the highs from Jan and made reference to the current month price action looking similar to 2014 and yesterday confirmed the initial interpretation as accurate. The game is not over yet and the rhyming that was discussed, has yet to finish. Yesterday was just the first phase of the correction if it is to be accurately compared to the collapse in 2014. Look at the Weekly chart from the Weekly section and noticed where prices returned to at the completion of the collapse– 2025 has a ways to go yet.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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First Indications Rhyming with 2014

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Not expecting the Jan high to be surpassed by the Feb high was using history to our benefit. Go into the recent history in the Weekly section — last week’s events have only happened a handful of times and the results are similar (especially in the last 12 years). Sure to the concepts of the Weekly writing — prices opened significantly lower on Sunday night. Won’t be claiming technical victory (got burned in the phases of the 2014 collapse) but will be watching the price movements closely this week.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.16-$4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

Buying Dries Up

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The run ran out of steam and retraced after the storage release which I thought was bullish miss. That is why I don’t follow trade on fundamental data. The declines did not break below $4 and now that seems to be support. There are four more trade days in the March contract, and the decline I was expecting (to major support at $3.16) seems unlikely. Should the market remains supported over the next days there may be a new “range” or para-dime in natural gas during 2025. This recent strength should be respected and I will follow up with additional analysis over the weekend.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

Challenge at Resistance Succeeds For Now

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Discussed it in the Daily published after the failure of the server to send out the Daily yesterday– the market closed at the previous Jan High and that suggests higher highs is a bullish trend– will the bullish trend continue — we will get a further indication with the storage release today.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.369, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Solid Run At Highs

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Apologies to all as the server had issues landing the Daily this morning — was going to discuss the close over $4.00 being a solid test of resistance at the January highs but the expectation was for the market was to retrace and set up a test of support around $3.20. Had no clue on this extension up to the January highs (but as of this writing) but seems to be running out of buyers. Will be interesting to observe this closing and the week’s closing as perhaps Nat Gas is joining many of the other commodities in their bullish trends and adventures (many of which are tied to dollar strength). A higher high will suggest such an interpretation.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.369, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Light Volume Sends Prices Down

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With the light trade on the holiday, prices retreated back down to conventional support from the 50day SMA. Went into expectations in the Weekly Section but from the Daily perspective — it’s the range controlling the trade.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

Trying to Trade a Higher High

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The move continued (especially in the late day trade) trying to entice the rally to take out the $3.84 area (not a higher high- monthly) but will lead to potential trade to set a higher monthly high– today is storage which may bring the volume to set a new high.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

Momentum Working Against Gains

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This run in prices is starting to work against further gains as prices are setting lower highs and lower lows so far this month. We all understand that bull runs need to feed off of themselves to extent higher and so far in Feb it is not happening. Technical data points don’t seem to be directing this move and fundamental data points will start to become an issue as the current weather systems correct to more seasonal patterns.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.34, $3.39, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Price Gains Hold

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The gains posted on Sunday night held but didn’t grow during the trade day. Prices are butting up against near term resistance — but his may also be a consolidation period to send prices higher (cold weather continues the momentum) or for the market correct to test support at $3.00 and set up the Q1 low. The answer will be in the coming seek or so as the ending inventories will provide insight as to the trader’s perspective.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.16, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.34, $3.39, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,