Category: Daily Call

It seems I am not the only one looking at the trade from a skeptical perspective. We get a bearish storage report and prices rise — oh ok. Then further strength going into the weekend— ok. If markets don’t go down when they get bearish news — then something is amiss. The market has tried several times to get down to the Aug lows a t $2.029 only to find support. Speculative shorts continue to add to positions (according to the CFTC) but are they running out of trade ammo? I am not convinced that this market is going to break below those August lows until the winter is over. Until then — play the range.

Yesterday may be a tell tale as price could not extend downward extensions on a bearish release(when price don’t go down on bearish news they are headed up). Perhaps a base is coming but playing the range, daily, has worked out ok. Would be careful here shorting the market at resistance now.

Perhaps the sellers are waiting for yet another bearish release — but that should of been baked into prices already. I am still puzzled at the lack of extension to the declines as the price action seems to be lacking momentum and more consolidation for the next move. Up or down the market is consolidating recent declines and waiting on further information. Its boring, but continue to play the range in the prompt.

What was support a couple of weeks ago now seems to be providing resistance. It almost looks like the market is forming a base from which to rally. Perhaps this week’s storage release will provide better insight as it will be bearish again. I am getting some interest that with all the bearish data hitting the market additional pressure to prices is not occurring. I stated yesterday that the techs suggest a test of August lows should be expected but am not seeing confirmation with the trade. Play the range still but keep an eye on the potential for divergences developing in the price action.

I am confused with the price action yesterday— from everything I heard from you fundamental folks on weather, the next two weeks are bearish. Granted, prices did not rocket up, but the support given causes me concern. Techs say that we should retest the Aug lows at $2.029, but price actions seems to lead to exhaustion of sellers. This could be a delicate moment for the market. Play the range.

Not a bunch of support areas left for the declines until we get to the August lows of $2.029. Not sure it will get there directly but the test would be significant and may take some time (attempts). The short interest is looking for the break and potential break down to $1.90. We shall see.

Welcome to 2020 and the same range that has held prices for the last month ($2.138-$2.37). The declines held support last week and early trade has them holding currently. Early January trade has occasionally had and impact on trade(highs and lows) during the year and I will aluminate more on that history during the week. Until there is directional bias out of the range — play the range. BTW the CFTC report came out on Monday and showed the speculative short crowd adding to positions through the report date of December 24th.

The weakest expiration level since last July— then prices rebounded and are showing some stability last night on the opening. Still in the recent range — I am startled that the fundamental folks are not pressuring more considering the fundamental data from last week with demand way down and production basically flat (between Canada and US)— then again I am not a fundamental type guy — Continue to play the technical range that continues to exist ($2.15-$2.37). There will still be some potential for volatility, as we are coming up on a historically low volume period.

Here we go — light trade during Holiday periods is subject to above average volatility and we are seeing it last night with the opening well below last Friday’s close. It suggests that the bears who are still extended want to push the market down further but we saw in the CFTC data last week, there was not an extension of short positions, rather the report had the short position flat to the week before, but total open interest declined on Wed through Fri. That smells like short covering as prices were reasonable firm during the period in question. Yes the bears may try to attack the lows of the previous week ($2.158) but they will find buying at those levels in the February contract. Once again— expect volatility especially with the history over the last three years showing strength during the expiration process. The Daily will not be published in the Holiday period (Dec 24-26th) but I will try to have an update before expiration.

The report brought some immediate support but then prices retraced during the day. Still in the range since the gap open last week and last week’s range so continue to play accordingly.