Category: Daily Call

Prices extended the weak close last week, taking prices down to the support trend line from the March and April lows in the Continuous chart. Each of the remaining summer months brook below there previous contract lows. That said, the winter months did not extend to a lower low for those contracts. The spreads between the prompt and the remaining summer months expanded on the declines. The market seems to be setting up for another month of premium to the the next prompt expanding to the existing prompt into expiration, only to allow the premium to be hammered after the new prompt takes over.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Go into the trends of late regarding the market’s frequent selling on Friday’s in the Web so I will not dive into it here. Instead, the markets ability to range trade with no breakout or breakdown for an extended period of time. Some would call this complacency which scares this trader. The price action has given no clue to the upcoming directional bias when prices break the complacency — but up or down the rewards could be great. Break downs and the selling would take the winter down significantly from its lofty premium to the prompt prices. Break outs above will find prolific short covering and take prices in the summer/fall prompt to chase the prolific premiums in the winter. Either way — hello volatility.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Mentioned yesterday that at the open on Tuesday afternoon some folks sold out of positions on added to positions on the open that sent the price to $1.674 before buyers showed up. From there prices reversed again during the day, shoeing gains. Truly confused, as to the directional bias its anyone’s guess. Middle of the recent rage, radical daily trade and no established bias, hang tough. Today we get some fundamental data that may indicate some bias but in this market — play the patient range.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Not sure what news hit the market when it re-opened yesterday at 6 p.m. EDT – but it sent prices through support and created a lower low this week only to rebound at the time of this writing. Either somebody had to get out of length (immediately- say margin call) or somebody is trying to play with prices, which I remember back 15-20 years ago, by trying to influence a trend when participation was light. Regardless, it is still trading in the recent range– so play accordingly.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

As discussed in yesterday’s Call, the market extended the declines from last week only to find buyers that propelled another reversal. It seems to be evident that declines in the July contract will find buyers at consistent levels. My expectations were for the prompt to trade below the lows of last week and was alarmed when the rally occurred. What does it mean– the range is intact and the market is unable to break below or above. Look at the upcoming convergence of the trend lines– something is bound to happen.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Closing the week below the trend line from the May lows, suggest that trade will be opening the week lower when trade resumes. this week. …but also note the 50 – day SMA just below), that prompt gas will be offered lower when trading resumes likely testing and breaking the 50 day SMA. There is significant definable continuation support below the 50 day and the seasonal tendencies during the second and third weeks of June (see Website Longer term) suggests that weakness is likely to be limited. Loosing a dime would keep prices in the same recent range.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Another quiet day with the range staying with in he previous day’s range as the market continues to consolidate. With tomorrow being the end of week, don’t expect any major moves. Seems like the bias is going to shift based upon production (LNG export) news or the forecasts for summer so this could become very interesting as we head into late June. Still near the middle of the long term range (for three months) play accordingly.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Another low volatility day with tight range and a slight increase in price. Does not look like the market is dedicated to a directional bias and is comfortable in the range that has held for three months. Wish there was some technical indicator that would give us a clue but all I can see is what I have discussed in the long term section of the web site for the last four weeks.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Quiet day in the gas market as prices stayed within the range of Monday’s trade and spent the day consolidating. Due to this inactivity, comments have not changed. Play the range and we are pretty much in the middle– yee haw.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

History has a tendency to repeat itself and I have discussed the history for early June trade to weaken with the July as prompt. That happened again yesterday as price tried to break below last Friday’s low for July gas only to find buying once again. Seems like a fair amount of struggle is going on between the early morning camp which likes to send price down to support (speculation between 5 and 7 am CDT) followed by the physical delivery folks (between 7 and 9 am CDT). Not sure whats going on there but it is interesting to trade around. Again, the market is in a range trade environment for now and trade it accordingly.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.82, $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896