Category: Daily Call

As discussed in the Weekly section, September gave up the premium afforded it as prompt quickly last week. The declines continued into the recent range, closing the outright contract below the critical trend line, but when the trade continued prices had rebounded $.02 by the end of the trade day, closing just below this critical trend line. The tendency for the last three weeks, have been Monday’s showing a decline.

We should get a great indication of whether the bias in this market is changing (per the Weekly section) during the coming couple of weeks. Last week occurred on lower volume and a slight gain in open interest, but according to the CFTC report showing positions as of the 28th, Managed Money short positions have been reduced 11,245 contracts while the the Managed Money long positions had increased 7,294 contracts– the speculators seem to be changing there bias.

The similarities to previous weeks continues as price found a bid and erased the previous day’s losses. This market is starting to “feel” different as prices decline and support arrives, which is much different than one or two months ago, where declines were piled into. It remains a range market and should be respected as such.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Spot August

For the third consecutive week prices want to start lower. Last week the low surge formed a reversal discussed in the Long Term section of the web site. Not sure what this week will bring, but as discussed in the Long term section there may be a slight bias change going on. For now, daily traders have to respect the range trade we are in and trade accordingly. This week has an expiration which will provide addition information — check the long term during the week to ascertain any changes that I see from a technical perspective.

Prices rallied a dime after the storage report was released that basically met expectations. With the selling earlier in the week, it was not surprising to see the short covering when participants did not get the further declines they were expecting. Now the movements have take prices to the high end of the recent range.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Still don’t like the smell of this directionless market–winter strip is still trading roughly $1.00 over prompt (great if you are a storage operator) but the prompt does not seem to be taking cues from either the fundamentals or technical trade. Range bound forever I guess.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Ok, so prices decline on the weather forecasts only to reverse with little change and go higher. Are you starting to understand that there is more to trading commodities than supply and demand of the product. Play the range which would be to the upside now that support seems to of been tested.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Not a fundamental based trader like most of you — but I have to ask — With all the heat in the next 30 days, would that not be supportive to prices yet they are down challenging June’s lows. Something is not right here. I understand LNG is off (has been for weeks), production is gaining (you thing they are forward selling strips- will have to check), but the weather guys are saying demand is big this July and August. Oh well, what do I care play the range and we seem to be headed to the low end.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

That storage release provided little directional bias to an already directionless market. The case can be made for the market to roam in this tight range for a while which infers selling premium in the option world. Keep a tight eye on the technical levels if this is your strategy and don’t hesitate to cover.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.722
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance: