Category: Daily Call

Initial results from the storage report were less than bullish but prices rallied slowly through the day and finished near the highs. The fundamental data shows a hurricane hitting the gulf and demand destruction coming. Not following the supply data, I have been told that the supply disruption has been basically offset by limits in LNG exports. So, not sure why some of the strength during the trade day.

Major Support: $2.376,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support: $2.316
Major Resistance: $ 2.693-$2.701, $2.723-$2.743, $2.781

Similar behavior yesterday as the run first thing in the morning started to challenge the resistance around $2.70 only to find consistent pressure for prices. It would seem that the market is determining whether the demand destruction and LNG restrictions due to the storm out weigh the loss of production. Until this struggle gets resolved, the recent range should be expected.

Major Support: $2.376,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support: $2.316
Major Resistance: $ 2.693-$2.701, $2.723-$2.743, $2.781

The action yesterday tested the resistance at and around the $2.70 area and failed again for the second time this week. This area is now established as formidable resistance for the near term. From that failure at resistance, prices continue to melt down closing the day near the lows. The market seems to be setting a range for traders and expect that to continue until the fundamental data point settle themselves out.

Major Support: $2.376,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support: $2.316
Major Resistance: $ 2.693-$2.701, $2.723-$2.743, $2.781

I have been waiting for an indication of the market start to establish a base from which a Q4 rally (annually) could begin– yesterday was not such an event. Instead, it looked like a basic near term short covering rally as prices retreated after a certain high (very near the gap from Nov ’19 that was closed on the first day of Nov prompt), declining during the remainder of the day. Not sure what spooked the bears (I have been told tropical storms destroy demand more than hitting production). Most commodities rocked yesterday — so perhaps that led to some of the strength.

Major Support: $2.373,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support: $2.32
Major Resistance: $ 2.693-$2.701, $2.723-$2.743, $2.781

In the early trade, natural gas wants to trade higher which will be interesting as it hits resistance zones, but perhaps it will trade up into the $2.50’s which will provide low risk opportunities for length. In the mean time, history does not support a break out above recent highs nor significant declines below the range from the expiration of Oct.

Expect a month of range trading for the Nov contract but perhaps I will be wrong. Until the market proves my errors – will continue to trade accordingly.

Seemed like everyone was comfortable with the storage release, now it is time for the market to focus on the next move. The lack of support to run prices up, combined with the lack of price action down leads me to believe this market needs time to decide.

Major Support: $2.496
Minor Support: $2.388-$2.415
Major Resistance: $ 2.905, $2.928

In the early morning — prices declined to $2.425 but when other folks got into the office prices found some light support (likely some modest short covering from those who had sold it down to $2.425) to carry price action during the day. Not sure why that area held support (a penny off of my range of support) but this is not an exact science. Today is storage day and all sorts of volatility is quite likely. Looking at it from a large picture– the winter is still a little extended to the upside and the differentials between some of the months provides a cautious approach. Lets see where this storage report takes us.

Major Support: $2.544, $2.518-$2.496
Minor Support: $2.388-$2.415
Major Resistance: $ 2.905, $2.928

October stayed volatile through the end of its life, nice $.15 range. Now we trade Nov and it seems just a tad above the gas prices of late. Granted a futures contract is the “expectation” of prices but currently, prices seem to be running into high side resistance. The market behavior is suggesting that there may be some softness coming but I would not expect significant declines.

Major Support: $2.752-$2.729, $2.544, $2.518-$2.496
Minor Support: $2.603
Major Resistance: $ 2.905, $2.928

Expiration price movements are always a crap shoot and this one is no different, especially after the last two week’s volatility. The Nov contract responded to the gyrations of October but were not as severe. The declines did test the major support zones two weeks ago but failure there allowed for a rally through the remainder of the week. This area (trend line off of the July low and the September low) should be tested in the early phase of Nov taking over as prompt during the upcoming week.

Major Support: $2.752-$2.729, $2.544, $2.518-$2.496
Minor Support: $2.603
Major Resistance: $ 2.905, $2.928