Category: Daily Call

Weak Close Suggests More Down Side

Daily Continuous

While the down side movement has now created “mixed” signals to the bias going forward, the move during March still embraces a more bullish environment for gas prices longer term. As far as April goes this week the headline says it all. The way market has finished the last couple of weeks, does not instill supreme confidence of a rally into the expiration — but rather the opposite.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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A Break Below $4.00

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Price action broke through the $4.00 level which has been a formidable area of support for nearly a month– now what? I am going to consider this with a “neutral” bias and will wait to see confirmation today. Want to look at the volume and open interest levels from this week and relate them to the price declines. What happened a few days back (higher highs on higher volume and increasing open interest) should not be discounted to the semi-weekly reversal mentioned in my Weekly on Monday. The market (as it does quite often) is sending conflicting technical signals.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Consolidation

Daily Consolidation

No Daily yesterday as there was no change to comments from the day before– wanted to just make the comment today (even though nothing changed) that the market wants to test resistance after a very weak challenge of support. The fact that the challenge was so weak is important to understand that there seems to be an underlying support for prices above $4.00. Time will tell.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Testing Low End of Range

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the postings yesterday that the market would likely develop the range for trade and it seems to be setting the low end. From the short side it may correct to the $3.70 area but would not be aggressive chasing that level. The low extension may provide the opportunity to clear some put positions– other than that — play the levels in the range.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Prices Rally to Run Out of Buyers

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Big run up in the Sunday night market only to find ample selling when the full market opened. Last week’s behavior was informative (discussed in the Weekly section) but did not totally resolve the near term direction (nor the definitive bias component). We now sit in a new range market that will lead us either to consolidation, confirmation (bias), or capitulation (breaking the low end of range).

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Storage Release Provides Bounce

Daily Continuous

The reversal was relieved momentarily by the storage release but by late in the day had increased the declines. Today will provide the key numbers for the weekly close number and what implications may be for the future. Range is the key for traders.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Starting To Like a Potential Weekly Reversal

Daily Continuous

Spoke earlier in the week about the market continuing to go up until it runs out of buyers– suggesting that a daily/weekly reversal would start to suggest a lack of buyers. Recently each decline has found buyers but the trade yesterday and Tuesday clearly did not find folks buying the dips. Today is storage and will likely give further indications of the potential further actions.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

Nothing To Add

Daily Continuous

Hate to be lazy there is nothing to add to yesterday’s Daily except the declines continue.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.369, $4.212, $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Somewhat of a Reversal

Daily Continuous

The trade yesterday provided a daily reversal (waiting to see the volume data) from an extraordinary Sunday night late rally. The action created an interesting Candlestick pattern the may become relevant if confirmed in later trade this week. Until those and other elements of yesterday’s extraordinary price action come clearer as the week moves along.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.369, $4.212, $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

9

Market Defines Its Bias

Daily Continuous

The market doesn’t show its hand much clearer than last week. Starting the week off weak prices rallied, then it provided two more occasions to add to or explore weakness- both of them turned out to be buying opportunities. The old saying of buying the dips in a bull market is successful proved itself evident as each one of the buying opportunities were high volume days and even when the market started to correct, volume went down–low volume days on short corrections is a bullish signal as well. No ideas as to when the buying stops or why but watch the technical indications for some signal. One to consider is a higher high daily (or weekly) reversal.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.369, $4.212, $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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