Category: Daily Call

Quiet trade continues to haunt the nat gas market with last week’s low not really seriously challenging the mid-term support levels before rebounding. Early trade last night shows the market stronger. Don’t put a lot of money chasing Sunday night rallies. Went into some of the longer term aspects of the reduced volatility and market impact in the Weekly section, suffice to say that I am not convinced of long term additional significant declines considering the current status of the market (per Weekly section). Play the range.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Interesting that the volume rose a little yesterday as the prices held firm on the storage release that was well within expectations. This market has been consolidating for nearly two months (though within different ranges) with open interest very close (within 4,000 contracts) to where it was on March 8th. Volume has had some good days and some terrible days and yesterday’s volume was the third largest since March 8th. What to do — patience and buy the dips with tight stops as I mentioned earlier in the week. It is not conclusive that this market has the commitment to do diddly.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Well, I warned you that prices had not accomplished much with the declines and had to prove the point by breaking down through serious support levels. No such event and I did not even need the stop losses. Market should now test the resistance area and remain in this consolidation process.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Well, guess the holiday got some bears fired up, but they could only challenge (and short of that) the lows from March. Nothing to keep this trader from buying support. Lets see if they have the power to drive to the next level.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Prices last week ran just up to the 200 Day SMA in the May Contract before failing and retracing back to the middle of the range. Spoke in the Good Friday observations about volume and the lack thereof in the current environment and last week was on of the lowest 4-Day weekly volumes in many years. The shorts loaded up last month (seemingly on Mondays) and now they seem limited in additional contracts to sell per my writings last week. The low end of the range is $2.52 and the high side is that 200 day SMA in the May contract.

Prices just melted down quietly yesterday in front of the storage report this morning. Not sure that the report will have a serious directional impact — but you never know. Teased you earlier this week on some observations regarding the price action, volume and volatility and will likely be publishing those comment on Friday for your digestion over the weekend. With Easter upon us, this will be my last Daily until after the Holiday.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

That title is some “tongue in cheek” but not totally inaccurate. The last two weeks of March trade (April contract) was with in a tight range that could be considered a consolidation pattern. Perhaps the trade in April with May will remain between $2.58 and $2.70 signalling a consolidation pattern. Other options is for the May contract to melt down into the low $2.50’s returning the market to last month’s range, or to rally above the $2.70 area and potentially strong short covering rally. Stay disciplined here and play the ranges.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Doubt that prices will just explode with the new prompt / early May contract. Of more importance is how does the market behavior over the coming period of time. Expect prices to try to and test the low end of the range into the high $2.50’s eventually and that movement (the results) will define a directional bias for the May contract.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Spoke last week about the Monday tendencies, which were not confirmed last week, but they are showing some interesting trends that I will go into during the week in the Weekly area. In the mean time- should April go out weak, expect the May to retrace near the expiration. Should April go out with some strength, look for May to extend the gains. Should April expiration be flat (expectation), expect May to continue the recent range activity.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806