Category: Daily Call

Notice the red shaded area and you will observe the huge (tongue in cheek) volatility in the spot contract this month. Nothing changed yesterday either, so consider my thoughts and insights holding for today.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

To the up or to the down is the question natural gas has before because this range is going to break. Go into some of the historical trends for the June contract on the Weekly side — but it is starting to look to this trader that the prices are going to do both events (break down and break above) — but just not sure which is first. Don’t see the break down garnering enough momentum below $2.80 (see the expiration range on the May contract) and the break above is going to banging its head at several areas (discussed in Weekly) if it ever breaks above $3.00.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.08, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

Not sure what to say here but prices seem to be consolidating in the $2.90’s instead of testing mid-term support for the base of the range. We shall see what happens as the month moves on but consistent below average volumes (comparatively) over the last four days and a volatility in range trade condensing, are not consistent technical indicators of a break down or a break out. From there come more consolidation until something happens to steer trader’s actions.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

That small decline is not to be considered a retracement of the recent gains- but rather a slight decline testing near term support. Why the significance? Prices need to retrace $.10-$.15 in order to build a base to launch a serious run at resistance. Yesterday’s declines were not a launching pad for further gains. Keep working the range in trading activities.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

You can clearly say it is trying to break above $3.00 (for the last 5 trade days) and force some shorts to cover — but by the lack of success– the market may be signalling it isn’t ready yet. Continue to sell at the top of the range– keep stops tight and be buying on any declines into the $2.80’s this week.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

Nice quiet day doing nothing which we all know is a market consolidating for the next move. Is it building a base for the next run upward or is it defining the the top end for a collapse downward. Put you money where you want– I think both are in order with a slight decline to test the mid $2.80’s but there is no technical area there for support– not until $2.783- as prices just rocked through the $2.80’s on the way up. From there the $3.00 area is the target.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

A higher weekly close for six of seven weeks can be interpreted as bullish but would not rule out a challenge to the support between the $2.87-$2.82 zone. Key area for price action near term as prices may look for support and should they garner the power to trade above $3.00 then it will adjust the summer strip picture.

Prices declined and closed the premium from the expiration quickly, now the issue becomes do the declines take prices down to test support levels as the rally to resistance is secure. Would expect additional probes lower today going into the weekend.

Support: $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.890, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

One of my old time clients called me yesterday and asked when this type of cross commodity run had happened and how did it effect natural gas. I mentioned it would take me some time to put the charts for the other commodities and if I am bored over the weekend, I may just do it. Regardless, he and I agreed that neither one of saw this kind of melt up on the May expiration coming- it will be interesting to watch as I got cleared on May’s with options and contract yesterday and now want to see how June takes over on storage Thursday. As mentioned in a couple of articles this week — if June holds the gains from expiration then this summer may provide volatility in the Q2 trade we have not seen for a few years.

Support: $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.897, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: