Category: Daily Call

Not a week goes bye where I don’t hear a rumor about the busts in the weather models (both European and American models)– I just don’t know how you fundamental folks deal with it. To me, the market is consolidating the gains from the gap open and should retest the low side of the gap. Does it break down, or does it rebound — anyone’s guess– but the results will be important for near term direction.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

The market is confusing my analytical mind set on the fundamental data points. Clients tell me that the fundamental data (weather forecasts and HDD’s below normal) is rather bearish– yet the market gaps up and maintains the gap during the trade day. Confusion reigns. I do see that the Dutch TTF contract seems to be on a tear and has been for last couple of weeks. Is the market implying that there is some trading between the two markets — (LNG relevant)– this could be interesting to watch through the month as I explained the potential impact from the Feb contract during January, for the rest of the year.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Welcome to the New Year and best wishes to all of you fine readers. It is no surprise to see a gap open on the contract after the New Years holiday (see the Weekly section) and after last week’s reversal of a low (likely going to hold near term declines) at $2.238, it not surprising to see the gap directionally up. Now what happens to the contract over the next week may have a longer term impact on the year.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

A solid bounce off of the declines from Monday, but don’t bet your lunch money on it. Skepticism is generated from the seasonal light trade, the gaining in the overseas LNG market, and the fact that the run is contrary to the weather forecasts for the coming two weeks. Enjoy the new year and I will be back with a Daily on Jan 4th.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.55, $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.515

Prices gaped lower on the open Sunday night and traded in a tight range until the end of the day which provided a slight bounce. Expiration is upon us and I am of the belief that the low of the expiration has been established. Even with this dramatic decline, the long term bias analysis (discussed three weeks ago) remains in place. That said, all the near term charts have gaps in them which the market will need to define further. Trade carefully in the coming two days.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.55, $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.515

The Chart above does not reflect the open last night, rather I wrote a Daily on Sunday morning only to have to re-write this Daily because of the open. Prices gaped lower on the open down to $2.256 before finding some minor buying taking it back over $2.32. This could be a very volatile week (discussed last week) as there is an expiration and with light trade associated from the Holiday. Not sure if this decline will have an impact on the longer term analysis discussed here three weeks ago. Will be watching for that and will alert you to any adjustments if they occur.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $ 2.54, $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.798

Prices creeping higher into new zones and are now challenging to get into the $2.80’s. Discussed in the long term section some of my thoughts about this run in prices. The gains of late are likely due to forecasts and demand expectations and how long those will continue is unknown. The other variable that you should watch is the volatility I have discussed this week. Volume daily is declining so moves may occur of less volume due to Holiday period.

This will be my last Daily until Dec 28th and I hope that all of you have a Merry Christmas and a wonderful Holiday period. I thank you for your business.

The history of December action commenced last week and will likely continue for this week and next. Open interest changes flatten, volume declines and folks square their books for year end. The only issue that can occur with the declining interest in trade is volatility. Occasionally, this period can be characterized with an increase in volatility due to the reduction of participants. Regardless of bullish or bearish, keep stops tight through year end. It was interesting that the Managed Money short position was reduced significantly through last Tuesday (date of Report 12/15) as prices spun in the $2.60’s.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.596, $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.798

As discussed in the Weekly area, prices continue to use the 20 week SMA as the near term support zone ($2.636 this week) and it is likely that the lows for the Jan contract have been established. Most folks trade on weather forecasts, which I have no clue of, so establish positions at the extremes of support and resistance.

Support: $2.636, $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.596, $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.798