Category: Daily Call

I apologize for providing a Daily Chart from Wednesday — I am traveling back to CO and my screen editor does not like the fact I only have one screen. The market broke above the highs from Oct and Nov and I was expecting more of short covering rally– but no such luck. Now the key for the market is to hold the old resistance as support and to build on the break out through the expiration. Some elements would suggest that the real fun will start on options expiration between $3.35-$3.50.

Major Support: $3.396, $3.198, $3.129, $3.00 $2.914-$2.886, $2.78,
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.396, $3.482, $3.526

An interesting trade day as prices started off like the break out above the Oct/Nov highs was a given, then they just traded within a 3penny range until the end when they declined. Thought for sure that the breakout was coming and if it does come with a close above $3.396– kiss that retest I was (still am) expecting good bye. Currently, it is a test of support at $3.129 (didn’t quite get that low – a penny off) and now it is testing resistance and this is a large resistance area. A break above (daily close) and short covering will likely take prices up to $3.48 and develop a new scenario of the rest of 2021.

Major Support: $3.198, $3.129, $3.00 $2.914-$2.886, $2.78, $2.71-$2.70
Minor Support: $2.694
Major Resistance: $3.321-$3.33, $3.369-$3.396, $3.482

Yesterday, I highlighted that prices may build on the declines from Monday to test support levels. The market had other ideas. As I stated yesterday, I do think we will get a test of support levels lower during the expiration process but for now, we look range bound heading into the expiration.

Major Support: $3.198, $3.12, $3.00 $2.914-$2.886, $2.78, $2.71-$2.70
Minor Support: $2.694
Major Resistance: $3.321-$3.33, $3.369-$3.396, $3.482

Prices started the test of support but found some support after posting a 8 day low. This should not be the only test (per the Weekly summary) of support and before expiration, expect a serious test of $3.10 down to $3.00.

Major Support: $3.198, $3.12, $3.00 $2.914-$2.886, $2.78, $2.71-$2.70
Minor Support: $2.694
Major Resistance: $3.321-$3.33, $3.369-$3.396, $3.482

As discussed yesterday, there was no surprise in the storage report yesterday and the reclassification of the gas behind PGE. Market now needs to continue to test support zones and seems to be getting some help from the rising dollar (bizarre as that sounds– discussed that a week ago). I am not taking positions on gas based upon the dollar quite yet — but I am tracking the two. Play the low end of the range from last week for support.

Major Support: $3.198, $3.12, $3.00 $2.914-$2.886, $2.78, $2.71-$2.70
Minor Support: $2.694
Major Resistance: $3.321-$3.33, $3.396, $3.482

The second attempt to set a new high failed and as a result prices immediately declined. The declines will test areas of support from last week and as discussed yesterday — may well be the most positive event for an extension of the recent rally later this month or into July.

Major Support: $3.198, $3.12, $3.00 $2.914-$2.886, $2.78, $2.71-$2.70
Minor Support: $2.694
Major Resistance: $3.321-$3.33, $3.396, $3.482

It certainly seems like all systems are go for a test and break out above the highs from last fall ($3.396). With that said, I was startled to see the early and preliminary numbers for open interest declining yesterday with volume declining and the RSI still in the extreme zone on the Daily chart. Perhaps some folks are booking profits at the technical highs- will have to wait and see. I still believe that prices have to retest support zones in order to build the base for a rally that can take prices another 10-15% higher (perhaps not during the summer).

Major Support: $3.198, $3.12, $3.00 $2.914-$2.886, $2.78, $2.71-$2.70
Minor Support: $$3.251, $2.694
Major Resistance: $3.321-$3.33, $3.396, $3.482

That is a breakout as prices ran through resistance with huge volume and gaining open interest. Prices are now a little over-cooked but that may not stop additional gains, however, they will have to consolidate the breakout before moving on. Mentioned significant areas in the Weekly area and some analytics behind last Friday’s explosion. The key for the next couple of days is the late Oct highs at $2.39, mentioning in the Weekly that if prices do not garner the support to break that high — then expect some consolidation.

Major Support: $3.198, $3.12, $3.00 $2.914-$2.886, $2.78, $2.71-$2.70
Minor Support: $$3.251, $2.694
Major Resistance: $3.321-$3.33, $3.396, $3.482