Category: Daily Call

The March contract exploded higher yesterday and while the summer strip gained, it was at a much smaller pace. March is clearly under the gun as the fundamentals (demand) and the production freeze offs are going to carry prices in the very short term. The question remains, how does the market respond after the temps warm up. BTW look for a big withdrawal this week and next week. Some of my analytical friends (fundamental) tell me that the surplus to the 5 year average and YOY comparisons are likely to become deficits by March.

Support:$2.98-$3.05, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$3.108, $2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

That is a trade day– We got the break out above (finally) then had a correction back into the key resistance area ($3.00-$3.05) only to close above the key resistance area ($3.10). Now what happens? The major break out above resistance was not shared by all the summer months, which leads the interpretation that the rally of last couple of days is short lived. Today will hold a near term clue.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $3.108, $3.172, $3.208-$3.214
Minor Resistance:

Discussed the range and three attempts to close above the top end of the range last week. Yesterday, in light trade, the market traded up to test the high side of the range and then opened above it in the night opening. This is a critical time for the bulls as there is so much bullish news and data points from the fundamental perspective, if prices can’t confirm the light market gains — then there will be a correction. Discussed some of the supporting technical indicators in the Weekly section of the website yesterday– take a look.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.108, $3.172
Minor Resistance:

I know it has happened, I just can’t remember when the market has provided such perfect ranges to trade. Granted, you would of had to been up early in the mornings or late at night to trade the extremes of the recent $.30 range this month, but the first two weeks of February has provided a nice stream of revenue from the range. Spoke yesterday about the market seeking to run back up above $3 entering the high end of the range. The question was would it stay up or decline back the way it has twice before this month. Clearly, this was a low risk selling opportunity (stops just a nickel away) but the problem was it hit above $3.00 early in the morning. I am not a big fan of placing orders in over night- so when the market was starting to retreat, I was a little late to the dance. This is the third time the range has been defined this month, no clue how many more times will get the chance to “play it again Sam”, but I will be waiting for the fourth.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05, $3.108
Minor Resistance:

Was beginning to wonder if the market was suffering from “buy the rumor sell the fact” as prices could not gain any traction. Yesterday, and early trade today has confirmed that the cold weather patterns will have an impact on demand. Now the question remains does the fundamental data points have the strength to trade above and CLOSE above major resistance between $3.00 and $3.05. If we get the same decline at resistance on the close that we witnessed twice before then nothing has changed and the market remains range bound near term. Otherwise it gets interesting.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05, $3.108
Minor Resistance:

Prices traded down slightly in the face of the cold out break coming — which does elicit the comment “if prices don’t go up when the indicators say they should — then they are headed down”. To early to tell with this set up but the fundamental inputs shout for higher prices but perhaps these cries were why we are at the levels now. Time will tell– but the current demand profiles will likely eliminate the surplus of storage in the coming weeks which will force prices to establish a new or the same range for the upcoming spring.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

Been the trend recently (see Weekly section) for prices to reverse off of the previous Friday action. Sure enough, early prices are up Sunday night, from Friday’s close. The market has not shown the ability to close above the recent break out highs, retracing back below during the trade day. Tells this trader that the recent range continues and will continue to play it.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

The rally off of a benign storage report took prices back up, nearing the resistance that rejected gains on Tuesday. This looks like a retracement and through consolidation, setting a higher low (near term) which may propel the gains for another test of resistance (likely) at $3.00. What happens there may well tell us of the near term range for prices — whether higher or lower.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

Prices did little to imply a directional bias yesterday and seemed to consolidate the big gains on Monday and early Tuesday. Now it sits just above last weeks highs before they melted down after expiration of the February contract. No solid break out has been confirmed yet but a weekly close above the resistance above the old gap in the March chart (closed yesterday) will have an impact. Other than that event– this is basically a test of resistance –failure– and tests of support likely.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.87, $2.89, $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: