Category: Daily Call

This Next Week -Likely Volatile

Daily Continuation

Last week’s declines was expected, now we have a market that will be subject to thin volume and volatile swings during and around the next week. Would suggest sticking to the range from early Dec (as the market started to correct) and last week for the range to expiration ($4.40-$3.90).

I am taking the rest of the year off from the standpoint of publishing the Weekly and or Daily. Should something happen that effects the market from a technical perspective I will alert you to such implications. Other that that — Have a Merry Christmas and best wishes for 2026.

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Rally Runs Into Storage

Daily Continuous

Prices had a good run going into the storage report and then lost all momentum coming out. One reader had an interesting approach to trade mentioning that if you had been part of the rally two weeks ago and still had any positions on — it is more than likely you were leaving positions before the chopping volume associated with the holiday period (being so spread out next week). Interesting thought — no clue how to verify and quite honestly why did I even bring it up (irrelevant speculation). I get bored some times.

Major Support: $3.82, $3.75 $3.654,
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.095, $4.16

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Eventually Prices Will Rally

Daily Continuous

Not sure when we are going to run out of sellers but I can assure you after all the selling going on I will be interested in the open interest study late in the week to asses the new “short” positions. Until then, don’t try to catch the falling knife.

Major Support: $3.82, $3.75 $3.654,
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.095, $4.16

Lows Expanded

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Weekly area yesterday that the market might rally off of the $4 support area– was surprised that the support zone would be tested this early in the week. Is what it is — now the question remains does the price rally slightly from this support zone.

Major Support: $4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support/Resistance : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37

Price Declines End at Nov Low Range

Daily Continuous

The declines stopped last week at the 50 day SMA (or 200 day on the Weekly) then found support on the Friday close. Go into my expectations in the Weekly section, but suffice to say, the rally on Sunday night confirms my initial expectations.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support/Resistance : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37

Price Declines Taken Below Last Month

Daily Continuous

Hello November lows as prices have capitulated downward to last months lows. That ride up and down was fun but now what is going to happen. Good question– we shall see.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37

Consolidation Period

Daily Continuation

Prices seem to be consolidating around last month’s lows — but the question is– does the consolidation reflect a base for another rally or another leg down. The market will determine but I will be looking at history and see if there is any reference to historical tendencies after an early December high.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37

Trading Range Expands to the Downside

Daily Continuous

Two days and a dollar later, the declines are setting up for the low side of the range to be established. Mentioned yesterday — not sure how low the range will expand to– but prices have now declined to the high side of the range that was established in Nov trade.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37

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Expected Price Retrace Occurs

Daily Continuous

Yesterday’s reaction to Friday’s action was predictable (per the Weekly comments) as the over bought market needed to correct and retrace some of the Friday gains. Had a solid (and profitable) decline in prices and not sure the declines are over as the retracement might continue for a few days (range modifications need to be established).

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37, $5.49

Bullish Bias Close But…

Daily Continuous

I discuss many of the events that occurred last week in the Weekly section so I will not repeat here. Last week was instrumental in defining an expanding range and a bias change to the near term market. But it also revealed some issues going forward that I urge you to read. For now, on Sunday night, the market seems to be bringing some “reality” back to the trade. Let this correction play out as it may reflect another range change.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37, $5.49