Category: Daily Call

Serious Support Test

Daily Continuation

The price decline continued and tested the intermediate term support levels. The declines found some bids but not sure how long it last. May be a good time to use options for some lower risk income.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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August ’25 Lows Tested

Daily Continuous

Prices continued the declines last week with further analysis provided in the Weekly section. On a daily basis would continue to respect the low from August ’25. Due to the increase open interest and volume last week the likelihood of additional sellers to dramatically push prices lower is reduced.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Expansion Tests Jan Low of May Gas

Daily Continuous

Storage report gave the bears the chance to break the near term support around $2.70. The breakdown did take prices to test the Jan low of May gas ($2.689) but stopped at the 2025 low of $2.622. Now, do the recent low volume lows continue or are prices going to find a bid off this test.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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I Was Wrong

Daily Continuous

Thought with the bid decline after the cease fire that there would a new range and volatility around the low end of a new range- no volatility after the initial decline just a methodical decline expanding the low range. Have to wait and watch — just like the market players — on how to play the news and posturing.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Volatility Likely to Return

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in a Daily and Weekly when the Iran conflict started that the rally in Natural was linked to Crude and that when Crude corrected – Gas was headed to test mid term support. We got a taste of that last night when Crude fell over $18.00 off the days highs and gas last night corrected back into the short term support zone (down over 4%). Patience here as the market needs to see if the “deal” is actually adhered to or not especially over the next week.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Starting April on Low End of Range

Daily Continuous

April starts with the new prompt May working the low side of the range that has driven trade for the last few months. Discuss the break down targets for trade and the potential upside for trade in the Weekly section. I am not convinced that either a break from the range (both support and resistance) is in the cards in the near term — but the market loves to prove my ignorance.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.77, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Test — Rebound

Daily Continuous

The action took prices a little lower but just as previous tests have done, found a slight bid. Seasonal trends have the market rallying during the 2nd quarter but this market does not show any inclination to head higher for very long.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Test of Mid Term Support

Daily Continuous

Prices seem to want to test the mid-term support zones down to $2.622. Prior to that test, declines will need to break below $2.77, which has held declines over the last few months.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57

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Back At the Low End of Recent Range

We are at Spring break locally here so I will do my best to publish the Daily all week. Not sure why I am worried about publishing as the market has not moved out of the range that has held the market in Feb and now most of Mar. Would be very startled if there is any dramatic alteration to trade behavior.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Not Much To Add

Daily Continuous

Not sure what can be added to the last couple of Daily’s as the market remains in the tight range from late last month, regardless of the war and an anemic storage injection. Would expect the close of week as slow as the last couple of days.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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