Category: Daily Call

Bullish Storage Release — Little Effect

Daily Continuous

First day as prompt and a bullish storage release could not provide the inertia to push price up towards the Feb action as prices ended just about where they started. Must be some indecision by the trade as to how active the market will take the price.

Major Support: $3.554, $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

March About to Take Prompt

Daily March Contract

Switched over to the March contract as the behavior of the expiring Feb contract is not providing valuable information for analytics. The market will still have to address the $1.00 discount provided to the March contract. What do the forecasts have in store for the market.

Major Support: $3.554, $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

What Do You Know

Daily Continuous

Wrote in the Weekly my hesitation to print a Daily yesterday and I suggest you read it. Some asked last week when this run would end and I mentioned that it depends on when the shorts are done covering and the forecasts moderate. Guess the shorts weren’t done until later in the day and the weather is still potentially have an impact on price. Not from the Feb standpoint — but the March price. Not sure where Feb is going to settle but odds are it will be at a significant premium to March and that will be where any forecast implication will be felt. Through all that volatility in Feb, March stayed “calm”

Major Support: $3.554, $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

Weather Driven Short Squeeze Continues

Daily Continuous

Wow– prices started to challenge the highs from December in the after market last evening climbing up to $5.345 where the highs from December were $5.496. A client asked how long will this continue – my response was “as long as the forecasts remain this bullish and there remains a significant short interest in the market”. According to the CME website-volume from Monday and Tuesday hit 1.52 million contracts and open interest fell 40,000+ contracts. The Tuesday trade will likely maintain a similar trend for those two elements.

All this buying has the market approaching slightly over bought status. While the RSI has some room left to rally the price run has challenged two standard deviation over the 20 week SMA (see chart below).

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Gap Starts Trade Week

Daily Continuous

A distinctly negative bias at the end of last week, reversed quickly yesterday based on a significant modification to weather forecasts creating a technical reversal higher. Discuss some of the ramifications in the Weekly section, but the market has now extended the action I expected this week. Still a negative bias but the market will have to take a couple days and trader’s interpretation to gather support for further gains.

Major Support: $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.372, $3.467, $3.554, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

It Was A Lower High?

Daily Continuous

There was a lower high with yesterday’s trade, but I would of liked a test of $3.55-$3.60 as a solid lower high before the collapse of the gains sending price to a lower low. Guess the storage release has a bearish bias. Lower targets have not changed from the beginning of the week.

Major Support: $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.372, $3.467, $3.554, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

Perhaps Setting a Lower High

Daily Continuous

Suggested in the Weekly section last week that the declines could go straight down but I urged a more structured decline though the process of trading a lower low followed by brief rallies to set a lower high. Looks like this process may be taking establishing this approach.

Major Support: $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.372, $3.467, $3.554, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Bearish Bias Rocks On

Daily Continuous

Define the technical aspect of the price movements last week in the Weekly section. Let me summarize – Bearish Bias and likely to continue though declines may not be quick follow the concept of lower lows and lower highs.

Major Support: $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.372, $3.467, $3.554, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Testing the Support Zone

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Weekly section that prices seemed to be destined to check the support zones in the near future. Welcome to the near future as prices melted down to set a lower low but had a brief rally by the end of the day. Market seems to looking at fundamental data coming out at the storage release to add to the bearish bias.

Major Support: $3.57-$3.546, $3.334,$3.16-$3.148
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.489,$3.467
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.