Category: Daily Call

Testing Low End of Range

Daily Continuous

Discussed in the Weekly and Daily — any weakness would extend the price to the low end of the recent range. Here we are an now what do the traders have in mind –Further extension or slight rebound to $3.00.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Back At the Low End of Recent Range

We are at Spring break locally here so I will do my best to publish the Daily all week. Not sure why I am worried about publishing as the market has not moved out of the range that has held the market in Feb and now most of Mar. Would be very startled if there is any dramatic alteration to trade behavior.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Not Much To Add

Daily Continuous

Not sure what can be added to the last couple of Daily’s as the market remains in the tight range from late last month, regardless of the war and an anemic storage injection. Would expect the close of week as slow as the last couple of days.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Late PM Catches Bid

Daily Continuous

Was listening to the news yesterday afternoon and nothing crossed my eyes that would catch the mark at the end for a $.15 rally. All I read was the the storage number was to be the first injection and a large one at that. Not exactly bullish news. Again, due to the war and impact on Crude (up slightly on the day but well off of its highs) technical and fundamental news can bias the market (volatility) in odd ways.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Been Here Before

Daily Continuous

We have been here before, trading lower testing support, the question this time is the same question remains. Does the market have enough sellers (in spite of the war) to break through to lower levels testing mid-range support.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Energy Complex Quiet

Daily Continuous

Crude and gas markets were quiet yesterday coming off the weekend. Until there is something dramatic in the the crude pit (one way or the other) I would look for gas to remain in the range discussed in the Weekly section.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Crude Leadership Slows?

Daily Continuous

While it is likely that NatGas will follow the rallies and support found in the Crude trade- it is becoming evident that the Crude trade may be “calming” which will limit any dramatic moves in gas. Trade seems to be quiet in the early Sunday night markets in both commodities. While traders looked to the weather report releases a month ago– now we have to watch the news channels. One solid element of trade, with the slowing of volatility — options can provide a lower cost avenue for directional bias.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Storage Gives Neither Support or Selling

Daily Continuous

Storage report provided little directional bias and the market responded accordingly. I did find it interesting that the gas market remained flat while the crude market was up over $5.00 (nearly 6%). It seems like the two commodities are separating their relationship and or linking that occurred two weeks ago.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.26, $3.42, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

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Stool Found the Fourth Leg

Daily Continuous

Discussed yesterday that the market lost one of its legs with the declines in the crude market. That analysis was laid to rest yesterday with Gas coming back during a rather tepid run in Crude, It now rests at the initial near term resistance and I will be interested if it continues to run (not sure of the fundamental reason for a rally) or just gives up the gains and returns to test the support side of the range. Today is storage report and perhaps the market will find some bullish inference from the report .

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.26, $3.42, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

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It Was a Weak Stool

Daily Continuous

Suggested yesterday and in the Weekly that any rally associated with the rally in Crude it could on on thin ice should the Crude market correct. Such was the case yesterday and now the market has returned to the support zone that the market has been working for the month. Not convinced that a decline will have the power to break down and below as the market still has to respect the Mid East situation.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.26, $3.42, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496