Category: Daily Call

Excitement to Dull

Daily Continuous

This is what happens to a market that gets juice up, creates the volatility with short covering then looses all it momentum and plummets back to reality— Boredom sets in — nothing to get nothing to drive — just minor range moves. I think I see my future. One part of my future is there will be no Daily on Friday -enjoy the storage release.

Major Support: $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Range Trade Starts to Develop

Daily Continuous

Mentioned yesterday that a range would start to develop and was confirmed in the trade. Will likely take some sort of fundamental event to bring any volatility back to the gas market.

Major Support: $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

No Longer Over-Bought

Daily Continuous

Nothing like loosing over a dollar in a day to take a market from being over bought to a more balanced bias. Expectations for trade is to develop the range similar to January and early Feb with the low end of the range developing either side of $3.00 and the high end of the range is likely the highs from last weeks close ($4.20-$4.42). A smaller mid range between $3.00 and $4.00 may hold the market as well.

Major Support: $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Gap Up / Gap Down

Daily Continuous

Spoke last week going into expiration a gap can be a tenuous area for technical considerations — that said, the gap that opened trade last night’s is more indicative of a technical reply to recent activities. From a trade perspective would advise caution letting– the market define its bias consideration.

Major Support: $3.554, $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Bullish Storage Release — Little Effect

Daily Continuous

First day as prompt and a bullish storage release could not provide the inertia to push price up towards the Feb action as prices ended just about where they started. Must be some indecision by the trade as to how active the market will take the price.

Major Support: $3.554, $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

March About to Take Prompt

Daily March Contract

Switched over to the March contract as the behavior of the expiring Feb contract is not providing valuable information for analytics. The market will still have to address the $1.00 discount provided to the March contract. What do the forecasts have in store for the market.

Major Support: $3.554, $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

What Do You Know

Daily Continuous

Wrote in the Weekly my hesitation to print a Daily yesterday and I suggest you read it. Some asked last week when this run would end and I mentioned that it depends on when the shorts are done covering and the forecasts moderate. Guess the shorts weren’t done until later in the day and the weather is still potentially have an impact on price. Not from the Feb standpoint — but the March price. Not sure where Feb is going to settle but odds are it will be at a significant premium to March and that will be where any forecast implication will be felt. Through all that volatility in Feb, March stayed “calm”

Major Support: $3.554, $3.374, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

Weather Driven Short Squeeze Continues

Daily Continuous

Wow– prices started to challenge the highs from December in the after market last evening climbing up to $5.345 where the highs from December were $5.496. A client asked how long will this continue – my response was “as long as the forecasts remain this bullish and there remains a significant short interest in the market”. According to the CME website-volume from Monday and Tuesday hit 1.52 million contracts and open interest fell 40,000+ contracts. The Tuesday trade will likely maintain a similar trend for those two elements.

All this buying has the market approaching slightly over bought status. While the RSI has some room left to rally the price run has challenged two standard deviation over the 20 week SMA (see chart below).

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Gap Starts Trade Week

Daily Continuous

A distinctly negative bias at the end of last week, reversed quickly yesterday based on a significant modification to weather forecasts creating a technical reversal higher. Discuss some of the ramifications in the Weekly section, but the market has now extended the action I expected this week. Still a negative bias but the market will have to take a couple days and trader’s interpretation to gather support for further gains.

Major Support: $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.372, $3.467, $3.554, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.