Category: Daily Call

Testing the Lows

Daily Continuation

Can’t get more bearish going into expiration (options today, May on Tuesday) as prices are testing the support zone that has remained firm for a long period of time. A contrarian would suggest that prices may rise. I will remain committed to not trading May but rather look at some summer spreads as prices continue to decline.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Support Breaks???

Daily Continuous

After the storage data gave strength to the bears, taking price down to and breaking the zone.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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No Bias Definition

Daily Continuous

No change in the range or the establishment of a bias change. As mentioned add positions on tests of support.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00 $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Headed to Test Support

Daily Continuous

Even with the high close last week, the expectations were that prices would return to declining bias and that is happened yesterday. The question now is concerning how many bears want to take prices back to last week’s low (also the low from Oct,24) just to find a similar result. Take advantage of declines to support as discussed previously.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Run Off the Lows

Daily Continuous

After testing the mid-term support zone, prices found a bid to settle the week up (rare as that is). Go into some of the implications from that event in the Weekly section– from a daily technical perspective, I am going to seek some length (using options) on the additional retests of support. We may be running out of sellers in the coming weeks.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $2.92-$3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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No Technical Changes

Daily Continuous

Not much changed from yesterday’s comments.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Serious Support Test

Daily Continuation

The price decline continued and tested the intermediate term support levels. The declines found some bids but not sure how long it last. May be a good time to use options for some lower risk income.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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August ’25 Lows Tested

Daily Continuous

Prices continued the declines last week with further analysis provided in the Weekly section. On a daily basis would continue to respect the low from August ’25. Due to the increase open interest and volume last week the likelihood of additional sellers to dramatically push prices lower is reduced.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Expansion Tests Jan Low of May Gas

Daily Continuous

Storage report gave the bears the chance to break the near term support around $2.70. The breakdown did take prices to test the Jan low of May gas ($2.689) but stopped at the 2025 low of $2.622. Now, do the recent low volume lows continue or are prices going to find a bid off this test.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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I Was Wrong

Daily Continuous

Thought with the bid decline after the cease fire that there would a new range and volatility around the low end of a new range- no volatility after the initial decline just a methodical decline expanding the low range. Have to wait and watch — just like the market players — on how to play the news and posturing.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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