Author: Willis Bennett

While the early strong gains were impressive, some bulls decided to take some profits in the move. Declines from the high were indicative but not conclusive that future gains will not occur as the those declines were slight compared to the weekly move. This week’s move over $5.00 needs to be confirmed that folks are comfortable over that level which should mean a test below and a consolidation around the key level.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.08, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.18, $5.33

For the first time (after two attempts) since early Feb, the market closed above $5.00. The previous two strikes above that magic number were repelled during the daily trade. Now the market will have to confirm the move on even though yesterday’s run had stronger volume. It may be likely that the break above was met with some short covering so waiting a day or two for confirmation of additional gains may be prudent.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.08, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.18

The early morning declines that took prices down to $4.747 before the buyers stepped in and moved prices back above $4.90. All of this happened on very light volume as the gains do not seem to be wide spread support for a launching for higher runs. With lack of volume traders need to be cautious in adding or starting to build positions. Fully expect prices to rise above the key $5.00 during the summer as some of the fundamental data comes evident, but the market action does not convince me that now is the time.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.04, $5.08, $5.18

Price volatility settled back a little last week as the price range stayed within the previous week’s range. While challenging the $5.00 level, the move was rejected on Friday with the retreat to a higher weekly close. Would expect some correction before the market heads into the 13 month trend of higher expiration rallies. In the Weekly section of the web site I discuss the limitations of further declines in the coming couple of months.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.04, $5.08, $5.18

Prices continued there gains and the volume each day this week has been a little stronger than the previous day but the total for the week is lagging from the previous week. Will the price action find the additional footing to set a higher high compared to last week– not sure. When I hear from the fundamental folks these prices are a combination of the conflict and the change in demand in the forecasts– I am more confused as ever for additional gains to set a higher high — perhaps it comes in the middle of the night (similar to last week) in very light trade.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.04, $5.08, $5.18

So far this week prices have stayed within the range of last week neither breaking below the lows nor above the highs of the previous week. That can be defined as a consolidation trade range waiting for the next piece of information to perhaps break down or out.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

The declines challenge the lows of last week only to find buyers (as expected) that took prices back up regardless of the fundamentals for natural gas and the weakness in the oil market yesterday. There is definitely support for prices between $4.40-$4.50, which is clearly supportive to prices near term, but my issue is with the potential fall out from a breakdown below $4.36. That could provide enough momentum to take prices well into the $4.20’s. Perhaps it doesn’t happen but with gas you never know.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08

Falling apart in the early light trade on Sunday and Monday, prices found a bid when the traders arrived and took prices higher. Then in the late trade prices broke down — this seems like a confused market that does not fully quantify the fundamental data point. From a trade perspective buy the near term dips and sell the rallies to the resistance areas.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $4.82-$4.88, $5.08