Author: Willis Bennett

Market Succumbs to Intermediate Support

Weekly Continuation

Prompt May traded through and closed below the continuation February and March lows and did so with increasing volume and open interest, then continued to fall to test the August Q3 ’25 – 2025 annual low ($2.622).

The lowest weekly close during 2025 was 2.692, this week’s close at $2.648 decisively violates the weekly closing support, but lower volume during than the third week of August (2,082,932 v 2,345,182) indicates fewer willing sellers than there were at the Q3 low. Even so, the highest weekly volume total in four weeks (since 2,509,774 contracts traded during week ending 03/20/26) suggests that the initial test of the ’25 low is likely that May will be offered lower during the coming week. This week’s close was the lowest since prompt December ’24 closed at $2.525 on 10/25/24 and volume was also higher as that low was traded.

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Expansion Tests Jan Low of May Gas

Daily Continuous

Storage report gave the bears the chance to break the near term support around $2.70. The breakdown did take prices to test the Jan low of May gas ($2.689) but stopped at the 2025 low of $2.622. Now, do the recent low volume lows continue or are prices going to find a bid off this test.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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I Was Wrong

Daily Continuous

Thought with the bid decline after the cease fire that there would a new range and volatility around the low end of a new range- no volatility after the initial decline just a methodical decline expanding the low range. Have to wait and watch — just like the market players — on how to play the news and posturing.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Volatility Likely to Return

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in a Daily and Weekly when the Iran conflict started that the rally in Natural was linked to Crude and that when Crude corrected – Gas was headed to test mid term support. We got a taste of that last night when Crude fell over $18.00 off the days highs and gas last night corrected back into the short term support zone (down over 4%). Patience here as the market needs to see if the “deal” is actually adhered to or not especially over the next week.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Starting April on Low End of Range

Daily Continuous

April starts with the new prompt May working the low side of the range that has driven trade for the last few months. Discuss the break down targets for trade and the potential upside for trade in the Weekly section. I am not convinced that either a break from the range (both support and resistance) is in the cards in the near term — but the market loves to prove my ignorance.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.77, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

May Prompt Opens With a Thud

Weekly Continuous

May opened a little higher ($3.055 v $3.035) and printed the high for the holiday shortened week shortly after, supplies for May were on offer all week. The low, printed on Thursday afternoon was $2.779, just .004 above the continuation February low. Very well defined support (perhaps too well defined), is presented by the continuation February/March lows and this week’s early April low…$2.775, $2.803 and $2.779. May settled for the week at $2.800, just a tick or two below its February and March lows.

It is rare, at least in recent years, that prompt May trades through the continuation March low. Before the past week, prompt May had violated the March low only twice over the last ten years, last year and in 2019. A year ago, the calendar March low was $3.689. May ’25 was amply offered for nearly its entire tenure and failed to trade a sustainable low until 04/24 at $2.858, which turned out to be the last low before the traditional Q2 rally which peaked at $4.148 on 06/20.

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Test — Rebound

Daily Continuous

The action took prices a little lower but just as previous tests have done, found a slight bid. Seasonal trends have the market rallying during the 2nd quarter but this market does not show any inclination to head higher for very long.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Test of Mid Term Support

Daily Continuous

Prices seem to want to test the mid-term support zones down to $2.622. Prior to that test, declines will need to break below $2.77, which has held declines over the last few months.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57

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Expiration Provides Little Bias Guidance

Weekly Continuous

April gas tested support again, but did not make it to the second targeted zone, before rallying to go off the board at $3.095. Maybe an expiring contract has settled unchanged from the closing price of the previous week sometime in the past, but I don’t remember it. Considering the volatility of the recent past, perhaps that’s a hint about equalization of supply and demand. April settled .126 higher than March. The thirty six months average settlement price (skewed a little by that adventure in February) is $2.96.

With the exception of a war related one day spike to $3.494 April was confined within a range of a little less than $.50/dt; on a daily closing basis about $.40 for its entire tenure…and almost all of calendar February. Over that period two reversal days…the 03/09 spike to April’s March high and one on 02/06, both of which ended near the lows traded those days, effectively defined near term resistance that will likely carry over to May’s tenure.

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Back At the Low End of Recent Range

We are at Spring break locally here so I will do my best to publish the Daily all week. Not sure why I am worried about publishing as the market has not moved out of the range that has held the market in Feb and now most of Mar. Would be very startled if there is any dramatic alteration to trade behavior.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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