Author: Willis Bennett

Break Out?

Daily Continuous

Did not write on the Tuesday break above $3.00 because prices did not close the day above that break out level and I assumed that a break down into the zone would follow. Much to the contrary, prices rallied yesterday, not only closing above the key zone but with higher volume and waiting on open interest (lags by a day). This may be the initial start to the annual Q4 rally (higher high already in place) but we all know that today is the storage release and it may have a mitigating impact. Will look into the developing “head and shoulders” technical patter and its impact in the Weekly report on Sunday night– in the mean time you can clearly see the inverted pattern in the Daily Chart above.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $3.00, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.00, $3.16, $3.307

Been Here Before

Daily Continuous

This will be the fourth time that prices have rallied to $3.00, the three previous occurrences have been met with serious selling and an immediate retracement to support zones. Does this attempt have any variation — in outcomes? We shall see.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.914, $3.00, $3.16

Well Defined Range Long Term

Daily Continuous

Discuss the trade for likely the remainder of this month in the Weekly section and the Daily has not insights beyond that discussion. Keep selling premium to make some small gains until this stagnant price action re-defines the intention for direction.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.914, $3.00, $3.16

Not Much To Analyze

Weekly Continuous

December began the week with a gap higher ($2.748 – $2.769) and extending its rally to test conventional, moving average and mathematical resistance (all around $3.00).

With volume increasing (average daily volume was 180,000 contracts higher) and open interest declining (total open interest fell 57,000+ contracts from last weeks all – time high) suggested the potential for a spirited round of short covering. Unfortunately for the bulls, December failed at that resistance and declined to close Monday’s gap. Trade up to and failure at a nearly identical price in consecutive months suggests a textbook “double top”, not unlike the twin lows of then prompt November at $2.210 on 10/21 and $2.200 on 10/29, and previously before that prompt October at $2.214 on 09/11, $2.229 on 09/12 and $2.223 on 09/19, clearly defining the low end of trade range.

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Smack Down

Daily Continuous

Now that is a smack down for the recent gains in trading. Up to resistance and then the volume came in an defined near term direction. Back into the range trade and look to last months price behavior for direction.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.914, $3.00, $3.16

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Resistance Top While Storage Release On Hand

Daily Continuous

Prices closed just below the resistance area at $3.00- the volatility surrounding the storage release will likely confirm of deny a potential break out.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.914, $3.00, $3.16

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Prices Remain Up Against Resistance

Daily Continuous

Similar September trade, prices challenged the $3.00 zone only to retreat in just a few days, the jury is out on what will happen this month. All part of a consolidation process leading to the next move.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.914, $3.00, $3.16

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Quite A Bounce

Daily Continuous

Was expecting a bounce off of the failed test of support but not in one day, nor the first trade of the trade day. Now prices are challenging the near term resistance– would proceed cautiously as yesterday was a lighter than normal volume day– due to the Veteran’s Memorial holiday.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.914, $3.00, $3.16

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History May Bring Range to a Conclusion

Weekly Continuous

December, which was awarded $.559 premium when November went off the board immediately began to forfeit that premium, reducing it to $.286 by Friday 11/01. December proceeded to gap lower to begin its first full week as prompt. Opening at $2.560 the new prompt traded to $2.514 before reversing higher. The $.281 range traded 11/04 was the widest daily range since a series of them in January (including 01/09 when a range of $.508 led to the to date high of 2024 at $3.392).

Despite the reversal with the highest volume of the week by a considerable margin, December was unable to build on the impressive recovery. Contracting ranges were traded between $2.818 and $2.643 with the low of that four day period traded just before the close on Friday. After trading a series of higher lows during ’21 & ’22 (the last of which was during 10/22) lower lows were traded in March ’23 and March ’24. While not definitive of the beginning of an intermediate/long – term uptrend significant higher lows have been traded during April, July/August and October.

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A Salute to Our Veterans

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Technical data points suggest that the recent test to support will be followed by a run to the resistance levels. Not sure which but I am very sure that today is a day for recognizing and thanking all of the nation’s Service Members and their families– active, retired and diseased. Thank you for your service.

Major Support:,$2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.727-$2.784, $3.00, $3.16

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