Author: Willis Bennett

New Bias Needs to Create New Range

Daily Continuous

The market seems to be changing it’s bias after the expiration last week. Would treat this change with caution until there is solid confirmation of the next and new range.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support :$2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$3.00, $3.16

Jury Is Out

Daily Continuous

While prices were up and down during yesterday’s expiration, I am going to state that the expiration process was well supported, thereby breaking the trend of the previous expiration’s of 2024 which were all well offered during the process. What does this mean?—The bearish bias (all through this year) is starting to take some hits. The first target is the gap remaining from the premium awarded the Nov contract (even though some of that gap was closed during yesterday’s decline). This will be the first test of a confirmation of a bullish bias change.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.618, $3.00, $3.16

November Maintains $.20 Premium

Daily Continuous

Today is expiration and the market has not shown a weakness yet, but the verdict is not yet defined. I continue to reflect on what was identified from the trends of ’24 and will expect some weakness.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Some Firming

Daily Continuous

Price action declined slightly but did not represent the weakness of the previous ’24 contracts– The jury is still out per my Daily yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Next Three Days Are Key

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Weekly section: … eight contract months that have gone to settlement so far in ’24 three have traded pre expiration highs on or after the 22nd. May fell hard during its last three days, August for five straight days the others had variations of weakness and timing, Once it became evident that expiring contracts were being “amply offered”…five of the eight have traded contract lows on the day they went to settlement. Have mentioned it before that, a change in that pattern would indicate a change in the character of the gas market. This week we will find out whether that change has occurred.

How do you say the rubber will be meeting the road this week. Be interesting to watch after the gains of yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

High Weekly Close — Bullish

Daily Continuous

The market closed at its high last week and the highest since last June. Discussed the impacts of the changes last week in the Weekly section, all that can be said here is the implication of the last 8 expiration’s and the weakness that these have provided. Would expect more of the same until it doesn’t happen.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Evidence of A Bias Change Continues

Weekly Continuous

For the third consecutive week steadily lower offers for the prompt gas ended with a reversal to the upside creating a higher low each time. Until late last week resistance presented by the upper boundary of a trading range that included the late July and calendar August highs had limited the reversal rallies. On 09/12 a high volume extension left October above that resistance but there was little follow through after the weekly closing violation and the prompt faded to test the continuation 50 – day SMA. The reversal from a successful test of the moving average support left the soon to expire prompt above the almost always important 20 – week SMA for the first time since the close of week ending 07/12, at the highest daily close since July 2nd, the highest weekly close since 06/28.

The technical case has been made that the successful test of the August expiration low coincident with September expiration (both $1.856 for a rare perfect double bottom), was likely the confirmation of a traditional Q3 low. Even so, the declines for the last eight expiring contract months gives me pause for thought. While I am still not convinced that October will hold onto its gains, two weekly closes over increasingly well – defined support…between the continuation 50 – day (currently +/-$2.23) and the late July – August – early September highs (between $2.270 and $2.301), along with the buying that continued through Friday’s close, which was essentially on the high.

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Struggles

Daily Continuous

Market is having struggles breaking out and holding the gains, but with the season’s starting to change and the ending inventories of storage becoming known, I would expect the price to break through to the upside eventually.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Breaking Resistance Takes Commitment

Daily Continuous

It seems that there just is not the commitment to send prices above the resistance yet. On the other side of trade, the lack of pounding prices lower is also a significant missing ingredient. Here we sit in a range trade game.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Daily Close At the Highs

Daily Continuous

Spending a lot of time and contracts at the resistance area. Looks to this trader that it may break into the $2.40’s which may force some short covering action. On the other side prices may retreat back into the high teens to test support.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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