Author: Willis Bennett

Well it might of been exciting for some to see the premium that July had over the expired June — as you know it was expected and the dog did not quite catch the car (see Daily on Friday). So here we sit in another range bound market — perhaps for the month of calendar June.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Spoke about the chase for the early May lows yesterday and it continued. Expect this dog to “catch the car”– my question is what does it do after— I have heard that exhaust pipes from cars can be quite hot.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Discussed in the Weekly Section about the series of high lows defining that a base was building for a future rally. Clearly, with the trade of the last couple of days — some folks don’t like the concept of the lows building a base and want to make sure that the lows are not the low end of the range. Either they push to a lower low or it will find some buying– did I mention the storage report is tomorrow–either way it should be an interesting to witness the outcome.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

As expected the new crowned prompt July corrected to last week’s low and in doing so– gave up any premium July maintained to June. It looked for a while that yesterday was destined lower than last week’s but in the last hour of trade prices got a solid bid and rallied back into the middle of the day’s range. History of weakness in early calendar June trade suggests declines may not be concluded– we shall see.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Discussed the developing medium trade bias in the Weekly area of the website but for now the daily direction is showing a correction to test support and confirm the historical tendencies of weakness early in the July prompt existence. Expect key support zones to be tested ($2.36 and $2.21) in early calendar June.

Major Support: $2.21, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Doubt that the market will test either end of the “new” range that has developed with last week’s rally. July contract is coming in with a $.17 premium to June which places it at the top end of the range. You know I have left the June contract and now trading July or August near term due to the light volume (exaggerated by the expiration June) due to the holiday weekend. Speaking of which, there will not be a Daily until Tuesday May 30th.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

So prices broke down after the extension of the recent range to the high side. Looks like the action has tempered the breakout but the week is not over. Perhaps the market is setting up a new range– we will find out the low of a new range in short order.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

That is a technical break out (discussed in the Weekly Detail) and now the market needs to confirm the event by testing the old resistance ($2.52-$2.46) as support and launching prices to new highs. These highs may come later after the upcoming holiday period (see Weekly detail) or may take effect prior to the holiday. History tells us that prices have a tendency to rally into the holiday before weakening in early June.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.50, $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595