Author: Willis Bennett

Discussed in the Weekly Section about the series of high lows defining that a base was building for a future rally. Clearly, with the trade of the last couple of days — some folks don’t like the concept of the lows building a base and want to make sure that the lows are not the low end of the range. Either they push to a lower low or it will find some buying– did I mention the storage report is tomorrow–either way it should be an interesting to witness the outcome.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

As expected the new crowned prompt July corrected to last week’s low and in doing so– gave up any premium July maintained to June. It looked for a while that yesterday was destined lower than last week’s but in the last hour of trade prices got a solid bid and rallied back into the middle of the day’s range. History of weakness in early calendar June trade suggests declines may not be concluded– we shall see.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Discussed the developing medium trade bias in the Weekly area of the website but for now the daily direction is showing a correction to test support and confirm the historical tendencies of weakness early in the July prompt existence. Expect key support zones to be tested ($2.36 and $2.21) in early calendar June.

Major Support: $2.21, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Doubt that the market will test either end of the “new” range that has developed with last week’s rally. July contract is coming in with a $.17 premium to June which places it at the top end of the range. You know I have left the June contract and now trading July or August near term due to the light volume (exaggerated by the expiration June) due to the holiday weekend. Speaking of which, there will not be a Daily until Tuesday May 30th.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

So prices broke down after the extension of the recent range to the high side. Looks like the action has tempered the breakout but the week is not over. Perhaps the market is setting up a new range– we will find out the low of a new range in short order.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

That is a technical break out (discussed in the Weekly Detail) and now the market needs to confirm the event by testing the old resistance ($2.52-$2.46) as support and launching prices to new highs. These highs may come later after the upcoming holiday period (see Weekly detail) or may take effect prior to the holiday. History tells us that prices have a tendency to rally into the holiday before weakening in early June.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.50, $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Prices finally broke out of the recent range and closed above $2.50 for the first time since March. Yes, there was some short covering around $2.50 that propelled the move a dime high. Is this the confirmation of the historical seasonal strength in spring and early summer– not sure but a retest of the “old”resistance ($2.50) and a failure to send prices lower will be a good indicator.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.50, $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595