Author: Willis Bennett

Should Be Interesting Expiration

Daily Continuation

For many of the ideas highlighted and discussed in the Weekly section — This week should provide some valuable information on bias how November will trade with the Dec as prompt. Continue to look for the ranges that develop especially with the Dec contract.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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A Slight Bias Moderation

Weekly Continuation

Some reversal earlier in the calendar month (from $3.585 on 10/02 that was confirmed by another reversal from $3.550 on 10/08 for a third time this week’s high was $3.572 and that’s a classic test of and failure at well – defined resistance looks like.

Volume on those three tests of $3.550 – $3.590 has been remarkably similar: 672,699 – 643,006 – 639,225…higher than any other of the trading days during November’s tenure except 10/20 on the gap day. Notwithstanding that a chunk of the 797,173 contracts traded was the result of some folks buying back contracts they had sold short, the gap and the volume spike strongly suggest a high volume low. When November traded into the 10/20 range and tested the 20 – week SMA, (currently the value of that moving average is $3.198, Friday’s low $3.200) it reversed higher, ending the week on a strong note.

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Interesting Trade

Daily Continuous

The market rebounded momentarily and rallied only to collapse over the last few hours– looks like the market stays in the range where it seems to be comfortable.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Gains Hold

Daily Continuous

Price gains of the last three days held firm yesterday before the storage data release. While not establishing a higher high (above the Sept high), the action provided some support for the recent run, creating the potential base for further gains. The response will likely be established after the release.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Prices Continue to Rock in Late Trade

Daily Continuous

Price action was somewhat subdued during the trade day, extending Monday’s gains but I am startled to see the late action extend prices even higher. My fundamental friends will tell me that the forecast showed some cooler weather in either the long term or immediate forecasts, which is fine — I am just going to mention that prices are now starting to challenge the high end of the range (continuous chart above) from September’s trade. Will wait to see how this adventure turns out before calling the bias.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Forecasts ?

Daily Continuous

Read in the press that the rally yesterday was all about the weather forecasts that modified cooler over the weekend. Oh–Ok. Perhaps that had something which added to the technical indication which showed another test of support at the low end of the range — only to fail. Yes, the weather issues may have provided the gasoline to force the shorts to cover– but the volume and price movement is more of a convincing argument to this analysis. The range for the Nov contract has likely been established.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Clueless on Direction

Daily Continuous

Can’t explain and won’t try– as discussed in the Weekly section the price declines took prices down below support with technical expectations alerting additional declines. OOOOpps as prices gaped opened Sunday night — I have no clue why only offer to trade the range that has remained.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Gap Closed — Declines Extended

Weekly Continuous

November traded down to test the trend line rising from the August and September lows previously discussed recovered, but not sufficiently to close back within the range than had confined it for nine weeks. The lower boundary of that range…+/- $3.09 – $3.10, now becomes well – defined resistance.

The December contract, which continues to enjoy a substantial premium over November (currently $.733, a year ago on the same day December’s premium was $.481), traded down to the upper limit of November’s high volume reversal days on 10/02 and 10/08. $3.55 – $3.59 is well – defined resistance for the November contract and is support for December. Once inside/through that support, expect premium for December to diminish…just as November’s was forfeited. Unless/until December develops the sponsorship to overcome the trend line resistance (declining from its March/June highs) expect it to be guided lower by the trend line and it’s 20 – week SMA The value of that trend line on the December chart is $4.184 and falling about a nickel each week, December’s 20 week SMA is $4.188.

November continues to follow the pattern of the last two Octobers by trading an early high and then falling, although this week’s low on the 17th is a bit earlier. In ’23 prompt November traded its October low on the 23rd which was a higher low, higher than the September low which was higher than the August low. In ’24 November traded its first low after falling from a 10/04 high on the 21st. Just like this year November traded a daily reversal from that low and rallied smartly (from $2.210 to $2.582) but gave up the gain leading into expiration. From a trade perspective –be alert for a short covering rally but expect the same pattern to continue through October ’25.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

Early Trade Closes Gap

Daily Continuous

Price declines extended to the gap from the expiration– now the question is does the decline remain the focus with the storage release or are we running out of sellers at support as it has over the last few tests.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Low Range Tested In Front of Storage

Daily Continuous

Prices inched downward yesterday and would expect today’s trade to test the bearish support from last month in the gap at $2.968 (weekly chart). We will start to get a idea of will this become the base for the upcoming Q4 run in prices.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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