Author: Willis Bennett

Prompt Approaching Lows

Weekly Continuous

Last week prompt June traded at lows and June had traded through the previous week’s low and closed there. While volume was lacking (average daily volume fell 80,000 contracts) the reversal with a weak close brings a presumption that the prompt will be offered lower when trading resumes.

Discussed in previous writings about the historically consistent weakness that brackets Memorial Day. Most often a pre – Memorial Day trades to a high between the 15th and 25th followed by a decline to a low between the day trading resumes after the holiday and the 5th through the 7th trading days of calendar June. Last week’s high on the 12th is a little early but not unprecedented. In 2016 and ’17 the pre – holiday high traded on the 12th (Memorial Day fell on the 30th and 29th in those years, this year on the 27th). Declines from the highs in those years were 12.63% and 14.46% respectively. The low prior to an early June rally traded on 05/26 in ’16 and a more typical 06/05 in ’17. From Monday’s high at $3.840 to Friday’s low prompt June has already fallen .535 or 13.9%.

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Expect Additional Weakness

Daily Continuous

Discuss the expectations for trade this week in the Weekly Section, including the weakness associated from the open on Sunday night. When a market closes the week’s action at the lows for the week — more is going occur– confirmed last night.

Major Support: $3.26, $3.23-$3.18, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

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Storage Release Confirms Declines

Daily Continuous

The slightly bearish storage data confirmed the near-term bias of declining prices. The Weekly close will be important for the near term price action but remember, we are still in a range for prices — just testing the low end of the range.

Major Support: $3.26, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.423
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Lows From Early May Challenged

Daily Continuation

Price declines started to challenge the lows from a week ago but not hitting the late April low for the June contract. Keep those targets in mind in your trading, but for now its just trading in the range.

Major Support: $3.26, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.423
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

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Failure At Highs — Consolidation Continues

Daily Continuation

Price action rallied to a higher high only to feel the affect of altitude and retreated back into the comfort zone of the range for June gas. I would think that gas may make another run to the highs but it will need to close above the Moving averages converging just above yesterday’s close (see Daily Chart above) to catch some possible momentum.

Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Bullish End of Week

Daily Continuous

Discuss the price action in 2025 compared to previous years in the Weekly section, last week’s high close was a bullish indicator but consistent with history. Now, the issue is the continuance of the bias or failure at resistance, early Sunday night trade gives no insight.

Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Challenge the High Side –Failure

Daily Continuous

Prices challenged the high side of the range before the storage release and then relaxed to decline into the “range”. I would expect similar trade to- day with the potential for additional weakness.

Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Lets Go Top Side

Daily Continuous

The price action checked the low end of the mini-range and now seems to want to check the high side of resistance. Storage report will provide any stimulation that may be needed to move price beyond the range. Limit exposure until the release — unless you like rolling the dice.

Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

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Can’t Say Much During This Range Period

Daily Continuous

Wish I had some key technical insight for this trade — but I really don’t as the market is just sloshing back and forth with in a rather tight range developed from expiration of the May contract. Patience and selling premium are my thoughts.

Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

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Range Testing Continues

Daily Continuation

Not a lot to add to the heading as the market is testing and establishing a range for near term price action– would play the further sides of support or resistance to avoid being chopped by the potential action.

Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03