Author: Willis Bennett

Key Support Zone

Daily Continuous

Prices headed south to the key areas discussed in the Weekly section that held and found some support. Will be very curious about the upcoming storage release and the market’s response on Thursday.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Where’s the Momentum

Daily Continuous

While the extension of the declines was expected, but the move ran out of steam from the volume perspective. This causes a pause in the trader’s minds as the extension downward has areas of support to cover the shorts that are sending prices down seems to be limiting the risk perspective of the short sellers.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Lower Boundary Tested

Weekly Continuous

Friday’s close for October was the lowest of its tenure as prompt (nearly identical to its close of 08/27, the day September went to settlement ($2.888 v $2.886). During that same period the Q4 strip has gained a penny (now $3.304 v $3.293) This type of trade suggests that while the sponsorship is not present to kick off a traditional Q4 rally, there is sufficient sponsorship for the construction of a base.

During calendar ’25 only the March contract traded a high during the last five trading days of its tenure (January ’25 did as well). March fell from $4.476 to settle at$3.906 (January from $4.010 to $3.644). A couple of months, notably May and September, rallied during their last trading day, but every contract month this year has traded lower (seven of the eight to a new contract low or to test the previous contract low, during the closing days of their tenures as prompt).

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Look For A Test Early In the Week

Daily Continuous

Would expect a further decline in prices after last week’s close– the main question remains will declines challenge the $2.80-$2.75 zone (weekly lows from August and September). If not where does the Q4 run commence — read the Weekly for further ideas.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Back In the Saddle (Range)

Daily Continuous

Price could not break above resistance on the storage data– means the market is unlikely to move in an direction in the near term. Continue to work the range trade.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Bouncing Between

Daily Continuous

Price action bounced within the range that has developed – watch to see how the market responds to the storage action coming.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Bizarre Trade Become Strength

Daily Continuation

Mentioned that action in the after market trade yesterday, but it turned out a useless indicator for future prices as the market continued to gain. Now approaching the earlier month highs for the price range– but should be continued as resistance for near term trade.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Weird Action

Daily Continuous

Just when the after market open yesterday afternoon at 5:00 pm CDT my tick chart showed a crash to $2.86 on just under 2500 contracts. Got no clue what caused that except perhaps some one with length decided it was time to close its books or someone left a bad trade in their system. Prices then spent the next 10 minutes rebounding back above $3.00. Yesterday’s action becomes somewhat irrelevant to this analyst and won’t waist any more of your time speculating on it. Per yesterday’s Daily continue to play range forming for the October contract.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Another Range Bound Monthly Trade

Daily Continuous

For the last five months, contracts have developed a “range” shortly after becoming prompt and Oct is doing the same. This trade behavior has limited any chance for the market to breakout or break down, which is why the break above the 50 Day SMA was short lived and died quickly (discussed in the Weekly section). The Q4 rally could provide the environment to break above the current range. If it doesn’t will the Nov provide the opportunity? Not sure as it closed last week just above the high side of the current range at $3.20. Play the Oct range.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.897-$2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Negative Bias Reinforced

Weekly Continuation

The October contract spent ten trading days (from 08/25 until 09/08) running upstream against the seasonal current of price negative including multiple tests of the continuation 50 – day SMA. as discussed in the Daily last week, the prompt managed one daily close above the closely watched declining moving average, the highest daily close for a prompt contract since 07/22. The violation of the declining resistance was not confirmed by higher trade or volume (also discussed) and did not induce the expected short covering extension of the rally from the August low. Then the prompt provided a significant fade into this week’s close.

The failure of October ’25 to generate the sponsorship to extend the rally was different that the pattern of October ’24, when prompt gas closed above the 50 – day and rallied to record the high of its tenure as prompt on the day it went to settlement. The reversal from a higher high with a significant increase in volume, my rough calculation of average daily volume increased more than 75,000 contracts, along with increasing open interest as the prompt fell should be considered a technical negative. The October contract closed back within the range traded during the reversal from the August low (week ending 08/29). The range that week was $2.622 – $3.023 with 2,201,283 contracts traded. This week’s estimated volume was 2,577,0000. This is a strong suggestion that support deeper within that prior week’s range will be tested.

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