Author: Willis Bennett

Testing the Support Zone

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Weekly section that prices seemed to be destined to check the support zones in the near future. Welcome to the near future as prices melted down to set a lower low but had a brief rally by the end of the day. Market seems to looking at fundamental data coming out at the storage release to add to the bearish bias.

Major Support: $3.57-$3.546, $3.334,$3.16-$3.148
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.489,$3.467
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

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Negative Bias Returns to Gas

Daily Continuous

Go into the many aspects of why the market flipped to a negative bias in the Weekly section — but all you need to see is that prices are down $.15 and challenging support zones in the early Sunday trade. Not sure how this will track (1: an immediate decline during Jan or 2: or a series of lower highs and lower lows) but the market is clearly setting up for the Q1 lows to be established. My guess is the latter with the low occurring next month.

Major Support: $3.57-$3.546, $3.334,$3.16-$3.148
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.489,$3.467
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

Two Weeks in One

Weekly Continuous

The analysis and comments on the market and its behavior will look at the entire two week period of time from my last Weekly published on Dec 22nd (before the Holidays).

January traded it’s pre – expiration low at$3.797 before nearly a dollar rally into expiration ($4.721) and going off the board at $4.687. Settlement was $.263 higher than December and the highest monthly contract settlement since January ’23 at $4.709. When January went to settlement February was offered at $3.986, creating a $.701 discount. February is typically offered at a discount to January, but $.701 is historically a little excessive. A year ago at January expiration Feb was $.234 discount to the expired prompt. Readers will likely recall that the new prompt gapped higher then retreated to close that gap before surging to a January high of $4.369. After volatile trade…that continued through the end of Q1, February ’25 went off the board at $3.535…a little more than a dime discount to January settlement.

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Wild Price Movements

Weekly Continuous

As expected the price action is hard to analyze from a technical perspective with the lighter trade (volume and open interest) during the Holiday period. One element that should be respected that even with the nearly $.40 discount of February to the January contract the prices have stayed with in the range established in Q4. Would continue to expect this trend to hold during the last day of the January as prompt.

Major Support: $3.82, $3.75 $3.654,
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.095, $4.16

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Not A Lot to Add

Daily Continuous

Discussed the action from last week in the Weekly Section.– Not a lot to add for the Daily

Major Support: $3.82, $3.75 $3.654,
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.095, $4.16

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Price Presses Downward

Weekly Continuous

For several weeks while the market rallied to higher and higher highs the consensus of technical indicators steadfastly refused to acknowledge the price ascent with positive agreement. The last two weeks the consensus is neutral but with a deteriorating price negative bias. Once thing that the decline accomplished was neutralizing the extreme condition of momentum indicators

Volume two weeks ago the high last (the fourth highest volume week of ’25, 3,674,237 contracts) increased significantly (3,972,672). That is nearly 300,000 contracts increase while prices fell indicates that cause is being built to go lower which was confirmed last week. Price may well fall further (especially around expiration). Fun info- volume during calendar November was less than in October while price was higher, which is a volume divergence. That anomaly indicates that the sponsorship for $5.50 – $6.00 gas did not exist yet.

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This Next Week -Likely Volatile

Daily Continuation

Last week’s declines was expected, now we have a market that will be subject to thin volume and volatile swings during and around the next week. Would suggest sticking to the range from early Dec (as the market started to correct) and last week for the range to expiration ($4.40-$3.90).

I am taking the rest of the year off from the standpoint of publishing the Weekly and or Daily. Should something happen that effects the market from a technical perspective I will alert you to such implications. Other that that — Have a Merry Christmas and best wishes for 2026.

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Rally Runs Into Storage

Daily Continuous

Prices had a good run going into the storage report and then lost all momentum coming out. One reader had an interesting approach to trade mentioning that if you had been part of the rally two weeks ago and still had any positions on — it is more than likely you were leaving positions before the chopping volume associated with the holiday period (being so spread out next week). Interesting thought — no clue how to verify and quite honestly why did I even bring it up (irrelevant speculation). I get bored some times.

Major Support: $3.82, $3.75 $3.654,
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.095, $4.16

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Eventually Prices Will Rally

Daily Continuous

Not sure when we are going to run out of sellers but I can assure you after all the selling going on I will be interested in the open interest study late in the week to asses the new “short” positions. Until then, don’t try to catch the falling knife.

Major Support: $3.82, $3.75 $3.654,
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.095, $4.16

Lows Expanded

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Weekly area yesterday that the market might rally off of the $4 support area– was surprised that the support zone would be tested this early in the week. Is what it is — now the question remains does the price rally slightly from this support zone.

Major Support: $4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support/Resistance : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37